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OpenPolitics & Policy· Tier A · dated & mechanical

Prediction market shows 21% probability of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026

On All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · unverified speaker · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Aug 29, 2026

“PolyMarkets says only 21% chance we get a Russian Ukraine ceasefire by the end of the year.”

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disputable

Formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached and announced

Target: Dec 31, 2026Dispute this

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