Hayden Field predicts China is at most six months behind the US in AI capabilities, possibly already caught up or catching up within one month.
“Six months is basically the best case scenario in terms of, you know, the slowest they could possibly be. It may be that they're already caught up, and it may be that it takes one month. But six months is, like, the max.”
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Our resolution criterion
disputableObservable comparison of Chinese vs US frontier AI model capabilities (reasoning, coding, multimodal performance) on standardized benchmarks or head-to-head evaluations
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