Graham Allison estimates a 5% probability of Chinese military attack on Taiwan in 2026-2027 absent major provocation.
“Taiwan, number one, I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even into '28, but let me just do '26 and '27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I put it at about where the where the prediction markets are, 5% or something low.”
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disputableMilitary attack by China on Taiwan occurs during 2026-2027 period
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