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Unchained

Why Bitcoin Has Fallen Behind Gold & What Could Come Next

51 min episode · 2 min read
·
Vinny Lingham

Episode

51 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Remote Work, Fundraising & VC, Product & Tech Trends

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin liquidity constraints: Building a $200 billion stablecoin backed by Bitcoin creates unhedgeable counterparty risk at 10% of Bitcoin's market cap, while gold's $34 trillion market enables institutional-scale hedging with government and bank counterparties.
  • Gold equalizing price methodology: VanEck calculates gold would reach $34,000 per ounce backing M0 money supply or $189,000 backing M2, weighting central banks by FX turnover with US at 50%, revealing UK and Japan as most overleveraged.
  • Emerging market positioning advantage: Countries hit by 1997 Asia crisis now maintain high real rates, independent central banks, and gold-backed reserves after experiencing 50% GDP declines, while developed markets increased central bank leverage through repeated forbearance.
  • Stablecoin reward mechanism: Zash uses patented system where gold price appreciation of 25% on $10 billion deposits generates $2.5 billion distributed to users via points, with downside hedged through puts converting gold to treasuries during crashes.

What It Covers

Vinny Lingham and Eric Fine explain why gold outperforms Bitcoin as reserve asset, detailing gold-backed stablecoin mechanics, central bank leverage ratios, and how fiscal dominance drives $34,000-$189,000 gold price scenarios.

Key Questions Answered

  • Bitcoin liquidity constraints: Building a $200 billion stablecoin backed by Bitcoin creates unhedgeable counterparty risk at 10% of Bitcoin's market cap, while gold's $34 trillion market enables institutional-scale hedging with government and bank counterparties.
  • Gold equalizing price methodology: VanEck calculates gold would reach $34,000 per ounce backing M0 money supply or $189,000 backing M2, weighting central banks by FX turnover with US at 50%, revealing UK and Japan as most overleveraged.
  • Emerging market positioning advantage: Countries hit by 1997 Asia crisis now maintain high real rates, independent central banks, and gold-backed reserves after experiencing 50% GDP declines, while developed markets increased central bank leverage through repeated forbearance.
  • Stablecoin reward mechanism: Zash uses patented system where gold price appreciation of 25% on $10 billion deposits generates $2.5 billion distributed to users via points, with downside hedged through puts converting gold to treasuries during crashes.

Notable Moment

Lingham reveals he shifted from heavy Bitcoin allocation to private equity and real estate because crypto requires constant research for small capital, while large capital faces dangerous volatility, preferring illiquid ten-year holds in companies approaching IPO.

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Episode Transcript

If I said to you, I'm gonna build the world's biggest stablecoin, and it's gonna be $200,000,000,000, which is bigger than tether. If it was Bitcoin backed, I cannot hedge that Bitcoin. You can't hedge $200,000,000,000 in Bitcoin right now without a ridiculous amount of counterparty risk. That's 10% of the market cap of Bitcoin. There's no counterparty that's gonna take that risk off. Currencies can go to zero. Right? So it's often not the thing you think is going up. It's the floor you're standing on going down. Like, I have two kids and I when they're growing up, I would tell them whenever we got in an elevator, hey. How do you know the building's not going down? Right? You can't other than the feeling in your muscles. Hi, everyone. Welcome to Unchained, your no hype resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin. Thanks for joining this livestream. Before we get started, a quick reminder, nothing you hear on Unchained is investment advice. This show is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and my guest and I may hold assets discussed on the show. For more disclosures, visit unchainedcrypto.com. We have a double header for you all today, and our first guest is Vinny Lingham, cofounder and president of Zash. Welcome, Vinny. Hey, Laura. Good to be here. Thank you thanks for having me again. Yeah. Excited to chat with you. So over the weekend, it was revealed that the Department of Justice launched an investigation into federal reserve chair Jerome Powell. And in a surprisingly blunt video, Powell shot back saying, quote, the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public rather than following the preferences of the president. Bitcoin initially jumped on the news, but then it dumped, then it rose again and dumped. Meanwhile, gold and silver hit new all time highs. And, Vinny, you have been beating the drum about gold for a while. Why do you think it's been on such a tear this year, and why do you think it jumped even further on this turn of events? So I think that that the the rest of the world is losing faith in The US, economy's ability to sort of maintain its, you know, may maintain some amount of, like, moderated spending. Right? We we and I think that, you know, if you look what happened last week, obviously, Trump announced that they want to spend more money in military as well. We have a massive, massive federal deficit, over $2,000,000,000,000 a year. My guess is probably closer to, like, 3, you know, in in this year, but when all is said and done. And I think what the rest of the world is doing is they're realizing that that the The US is is dropping rates. In some places, they they're experiencing inflation. Like in Japan, they have to raise rates. …

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