Bits + Bips: The Most Dangerous Type of Asset to Trade on Weekends
Episode
37 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Productivity, Investing, Leadership
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Capital Flight Dynamics: Post-October 2024 market crash resulted from retail capital dilution across millions of memecoins on platforms like pump.fun, creating unsustainable leverage. Investors subsequently moved funds exclusively into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and stablecoins, abandoning venture-backed tokens and digital asset treasury products now trading below net asset value.
- ✓Weekend Equity Trading Risk: Tokenized equity perpetuals face extreme manipulation risk during weekends when traditional markets close. Trump's Saturday announcements create asymmetric information advantages for automated news-monitoring strategies. Traders should avoid high leverage positions on equity perps during weekends to prevent liquidation from price manipulation in thin liquidity conditions.
- ✓Prediction Market Liquidity Trap: Market makers face adverse selection providing deep liquidity on prediction markets because large order books incentivize insider trading exploitation. Polymarket's non-KYC structure makes detecting manipulation harder than Kalshi's regulated platform. Thin markets naturally limit insider trading profitability, creating counterintuitive safety through illiquidity for retail participants.
- ✓Options Adoption Geography: Asian traders primarily use crypto options for yield generation through covered call strategies, while Western markets demonstrate higher sophistication with complex hedging instruments. Retail globally prefers perpetual futures for leverage over options, unlike traditional finance. Covered calls on gold gained traction as traders lock profits at elevated price levels.
- ✓Market Structure Legislation Impact: Failure to pass crypto market structure bills in 2025 creates minimal near-term impact under current friendly SEC and CFTC leadership but poses existential risk if Democrats regain power. Without legislative constraints, unfriendly regulators could implement devastating policies. Midterm elections determine whether legislation passes before administration changes.
What It Covers
Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of crypto market maker Wintermute, analyzes 2024 crypto trading patterns showing capital concentration in Bitcoin and Ethereum while altcoins and memecoins crashed post-October. He covers prediction markets, tokenized equities trading on weekends, gold's rally versus crypto stagnation, and expects market structure legislation failure to impact future regulatory flexibility.
Key Questions Answered
- •Capital Flight Dynamics: Post-October 2024 market crash resulted from retail capital dilution across millions of memecoins on platforms like pump.fun, creating unsustainable leverage. Investors subsequently moved funds exclusively into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and stablecoins, abandoning venture-backed tokens and digital asset treasury products now trading below net asset value.
- •Weekend Equity Trading Risk: Tokenized equity perpetuals face extreme manipulation risk during weekends when traditional markets close. Trump's Saturday announcements create asymmetric information advantages for automated news-monitoring strategies. Traders should avoid high leverage positions on equity perps during weekends to prevent liquidation from price manipulation in thin liquidity conditions.
- •Prediction Market Liquidity Trap: Market makers face adverse selection providing deep liquidity on prediction markets because large order books incentivize insider trading exploitation. Polymarket's non-KYC structure makes detecting manipulation harder than Kalshi's regulated platform. Thin markets naturally limit insider trading profitability, creating counterintuitive safety through illiquidity for retail participants.
- •Options Adoption Geography: Asian traders primarily use crypto options for yield generation through covered call strategies, while Western markets demonstrate higher sophistication with complex hedging instruments. Retail globally prefers perpetual futures for leverage over options, unlike traditional finance. Covered calls on gold gained traction as traders lock profits at elevated price levels.
- •Market Structure Legislation Impact: Failure to pass crypto market structure bills in 2025 creates minimal near-term impact under current friendly SEC and CFTC leadership but poses existential risk if Democrats regain power. Without legislative constraints, unfriendly regulators could implement devastating policies. Midterm elections determine whether legislation passes before administration changes.
Notable Moment
Gaevoy reveals market makers inadvertently incentivize insider trading on prediction markets by providing deep liquidity. While retail traders have fifty-fifty odds benefiting from or losing to insider information, market makers always lose because they enable larger exploitative trades. This creates a perverse feedback loop where liquidity provision amplifies manipulation profitability.
Episode Transcript
It's really challenging to be, like, in crypto and see this, yeah, massive equity rally, massive gold rally. Like, I don't know. Like, we we do have an adventure arm, and, like, three, four years ago, like, every venture deck would be like, this is a market cap of crypto. This is a market cap of gold. This is a market cap of equity. And I was like, this is market cap of crypto. This is market cap of gold. This is market cap of equity. So it's like crypto didn't change at all, and everything is going up. And, yeah, it's kind of sad. So it just doesn't look like a volatile asset anymore, which is very bizarre. Hi, everyone. Welcome to another episode of Bits and Dips, the interview. I'm your host, Steve Ehrlich, and I'm here today with Evgeny Gaivoy, CEO and founder of the crypto market maker, Wirtermeid. Welcome, Evgeny. Yeah. Hi. Thanks for having us. If crypto taxes feel overwhelming, you are not alone. That's why CryptoTax Girl, a team that's been helping crypto investors since 2017, is offering $100 off on one on one crypto tax help. To get $100 off your crypto tax services, go to cryptotaxgirl.com/unchained. Again, that's cryptotaxgirl.com/unchained. Before we do, just a quick disclaimer. As always, nothing that, you hear on the show today is investment advice or financial advice. For more disclaimers, please see unchained.com backslash bits and bips for more information. And, with that, again, let let's let's dive right in. I wanna make sure that everyone listening today understands your business and what you do because it's critical, but it's also a little bit in the shadows. So can you just briefly explain market making in in in particular how it relates to crypto? No. Yeah. Sounds good. Yeah. It's a question I get a lot generally because, basically, as a prop train firm in crypto, we do we really do a lot compared to, like, a lot of our competitors. We roughly have three core businesses. So the first one is basically prop train on and market making on centralized exchanges, like Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, Bybit. Basically, all the big ones, all the second tier, some third tier ones. And that's basically our bread and butter. They run hundreds of algos doing millions of trades daily, barely providing bids and offers algorithmically. So, basically, if you trade on those exchanges and you have, like, hundreds of tokens that we cover, like, you are quite likely trading with us. The second bit, and that's something we've been doing since 2020, is, basically, providing liquidity on DeFi. So we basically provide liquidity on all the, yeah, key RFQ protocols, on DeFi, like one inch or Jupiter, for example, and Solana. We run PropMM strategies for those who know, what it is, but, basically, it's it's another way to provide liquidity via arbitrage liquidity pools. We do liquidations. We basically do pretty much ever since that can be done …
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“Polymarket's non-KYC structure makes detecting manipulation harder than Kalshi's regulated platform”
“Polymarket's non-KYC structure makes detecting manipulation harder than Kalshi's regulated platform”
“retail capital dilution across millions of memecoins on platforms like pump.fun, creating unsustainable leverage”
“Sponsors: CryptoTax Girl (https://cryptotaxgirl.com/unchained)”
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- WintermuteBy guest
“Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of crypto market maker Wintermute, analyzes 2024 crypto trading patterns”
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