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The Creeping Coup

50 min episode · 2 min read
·
Holud Tread

Episode

50 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Personal Finance, Sales & Revenue, Science & Discovery

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Military coup-proofing strategy: Bashir created the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary in 2013 outside the regular army structure, granting leader Hemeti control over gold mines to ensure personal protection while maintaining power through parallel security forces.
  • Oil curse economics: Sudan's 1999-2011 oil boom directed 70-80% of state revenues to security apparatus rather than development, creating extreme wealth inequality. Loss of 75% of oil reserves when South Sudan seceded in 2011 triggered economic collapse and power struggles.
  • International resource competition: Russia uses Wagner Group to secure Sudanese gold for currency stabilization amid sanctions. UAE supplies weapons to RSF for gold access. Multiple powers seek Red Sea naval bases and agricultural land, fueling both sides of the conflict.
  • Cyclical revolution pattern: Sudan averaged one coup attempt every five years since 1956 independence. Civilians lead democratic revolutions, but military consistently seizes power afterward, establishing a repeating pattern where armed forces view intervention as their institutional duty.

What It Covers

Sudan's 2023 civil war between generals Burhan and Hemeti stems from decades of coups, oil wealth, international interests in Red Sea access and gold, creating the world's largest humanitarian crisis with over 11 million displaced.

Key Questions Answered

  • Military coup-proofing strategy: Bashir created the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary in 2013 outside the regular army structure, granting leader Hemeti control over gold mines to ensure personal protection while maintaining power through parallel security forces.
  • Oil curse economics: Sudan's 1999-2011 oil boom directed 70-80% of state revenues to security apparatus rather than development, creating extreme wealth inequality. Loss of 75% of oil reserves when South Sudan seceded in 2011 triggered economic collapse and power struggles.
  • International resource competition: Russia uses Wagner Group to secure Sudanese gold for currency stabilization amid sanctions. UAE supplies weapons to RSF for gold access. Multiple powers seek Red Sea naval bases and agricultural land, fueling both sides of the conflict.
  • Cyclical revolution pattern: Sudan averaged one coup attempt every five years since 1956 independence. Civilians lead democratic revolutions, but military consistently seizes power afterward, establishing a repeating pattern where armed forces view intervention as their institutional duty.

Notable Moment

Bashir's personal bodyguard Hemeti, whom he nicknamed meaning my protection and enriched through gold mining control, ultimately led the 2019 coup that overthrew him, then turned weapons on civilian protesters demanding democracy just months later.

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Episode Transcript

This message comes from Progressive Insurance and the name your price tool. It helps you find car insurance options in your budget. Try it today at progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states. Hey. It's Rand. A quick note before we get started. We first released this episode last summer when the war in Sudan had just entered its second year. Since then, the war has only intensified, and the conflict is once again in the news. Parts of the country are facing famine, and non Arab civilians in Darfur are being killed on a scale that some warn is a genocide. So we wanted to bring you this episode again with some updates that will go deep into the origins of this conflict and the ripple effects it has around the world. What's the last sort of memory that you have of Sudan before you left? The sea. The last thing I saw of Sudan was the sea. On 04/15/2023, Folud Tread woke up expecting the day to be like any other. But it was just a normal Saturday suddenly turned into sort of a nightmarish scenario. She was living in Khartoum, Sudan's capital. Deadly clashes erupting in the streets of the country's capital. The Washington And immediately heard that there were shots being fired in the southern part of Khartoum. The shots grew closer and closer to her home. The airport, right at the center of town where I was living, had very quickly become the epicenter of the conflict. Roads became impassable. Families couldn't reach each other. The fighting has already killed nearly a 100 civilians since it began Saturday. Hundreds more are injured. It was chaos. Those first few days of the war were gut wrenching and absolutely horrific to go through. A humanitarian crisis. A military then turned to the sky. Call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call call but airports were shut down, and land routes were becoming more and more dangerous. So they looked to the sea for a way out. The last thing I saw of Sudan was the sea. Holud is one of over 4,000,000 people who have fled Sudan since war broke out in 2023, a brutal conflict in which the WHO estimates at least forty thousand people have been killed and possibly many more. That conflict has made Sudan home to the world's largest internal displacement crisis, over 11,000,000 people, the overwhelming majority of whom have had to leave their …

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