The Creeping Coup

What It Covers

Sudan's 2023 civil war between generals Burhan and Hemeti stems from decades of coups, oil wealth, international interests in Red Sea access and gold, creating the world's largest humanitarian crisis with over 11 million displaced.

Key Questions Answered

• •Military coup-proofing strategy: Bashir created the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary in 2013 outside the regular army structure, granting leader Hemeti control over gold mines to ensure personal protection while maintaining power through parallel security forces.
• •Oil curse economics: Sudan's 1999-2011 oil boom directed 70-80% of state revenues to security apparatus rather than development, creating extreme wealth inequality. Loss of 75% of oil reserves when South Sudan seceded in 2011 triggered economic collapse and power struggles.
• •International resource competition: Russia uses Wagner Group to secure Sudanese gold for currency stabilization amid sanctions. UAE supplies weapons to RSF for gold access. Multiple powers seek Red Sea naval bases and agricultural land, fueling both sides of the conflict.
• •Cyclical revolution pattern: Sudan averaged one coup attempt every five years since 1956 independence. Civilians lead democratic revolutions, but military consistently seizes power afterward, establishing a repeating pattern where armed forces view intervention as their institutional duty.