Time to believe the quantum computing hype?
Episode
28 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Startups, Leadership, Software Development
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Quantum vs. Classical Computing: Quantum computers use qubits — probabilistic states representing simultaneous zero and one — rather than binary transistors. They are not faster classical computers; they solve fundamentally different problem types. Target applications include molecular simulation for drug discovery, battery material science, logistics optimization, and financial forecasting — not email, word processing, or streaming.
- ✓Hardware Maturity Gap: Current quantum computers operate at hundreds of physical qubits, but multiple physical qubits are required to encode a single logical qubit for error correction. IBM's 2029 roadmap targets 200 logical qubits in a data center configuration. Experts consulted by Chen could not confirm what practical applications even 200 logical qubits would reliably support.
- ✓Microsoft Credibility Problem: Microsoft's Majorana two chip claims face peer-reviewed academic criticism. Physicist Henry Legg published a critique arguing Microsoft did not successfully create the Majorana particle underlying their entire architecture — a critique that applies equally to both Majorana one and two. Other physicists separately told Chen that Microsoft's published papers contradict their scaling announcements.
- ✓Post-Quantum Encryption Timeline: RSA encryption relies on classical computers being unable to factor prime numbers efficiently. Peter Shor's 1994 algorithm theorized quantum computers could break RSA, prompting development of post-quantum cryptography — encryption quantum computers cannot crack. A Trump executive order mandates US government systems migrate to post-quantum cryptography standards by 2030–2031.
- ✓Expert Timeline Divergence: Researcher forecasts for commercially useful quantum computing span from 2028 to several decades out. One academic researcher told Chen a scientifically meaningful molecular simulation — modeling photon-electron interactions relevant to photosynthesis and solar cells — could be achievable by 2028, while other experts cited 2030–2035, and at least one researcher argued the industry has severely underestimated scaling difficulty.
What It Covers
The Vergecast examines the current quantum computing surge, featuring science writer Sophia Chen breaking down what separates genuine progress from corporate hype, covering Microsoft's Majorana two chip, IBM's 2029 data center roadmap, Google's hardware pivot, encryption implications, and the US-China race for quantum supremacy.
Key Questions Answered
- •Quantum vs. Classical Computing: Quantum computers use qubits — probabilistic states representing simultaneous zero and one — rather than binary transistors. They are not faster classical computers; they solve fundamentally different problem types. Target applications include molecular simulation for drug discovery, battery material science, logistics optimization, and financial forecasting — not email, word processing, or streaming.
- •Hardware Maturity Gap: Current quantum computers operate at hundreds of physical qubits, but multiple physical qubits are required to encode a single logical qubit for error correction. IBM's 2029 roadmap targets 200 logical qubits in a data center configuration. Experts consulted by Chen could not confirm what practical applications even 200 logical qubits would reliably support.
- •Microsoft Credibility Problem: Microsoft's Majorana two chip claims face peer-reviewed academic criticism. Physicist Henry Legg published a critique arguing Microsoft did not successfully create the Majorana particle underlying their entire architecture — a critique that applies equally to both Majorana one and two. Other physicists separately told Chen that Microsoft's published papers contradict their scaling announcements.
- •Post-Quantum Encryption Timeline: RSA encryption relies on classical computers being unable to factor prime numbers efficiently. Peter Shor's 1994 algorithm theorized quantum computers could break RSA, prompting development of post-quantum cryptography — encryption quantum computers cannot crack. A Trump executive order mandates US government systems migrate to post-quantum cryptography standards by 2030–2031.
- •Expert Timeline Divergence: Researcher forecasts for commercially useful quantum computing span from 2028 to several decades out. One academic researcher told Chen a scientifically meaningful molecular simulation — modeling photon-electron interactions relevant to photosynthesis and solar cells — could be achievable by 2028, while other experts cited 2030–2035, and at least one researcher argued the industry has severely underestimated scaling difficulty.
Notable Moment
Chen reveals that unlike Google and IBM — whose quantum hardware existence is not disputed — Microsoft faces a more fundamental challenge: credible physicists question whether the core particle underpinning their entire quantum computing architecture was ever actually created in the first place.
Episode Transcript
Hello, and welcome to the Vergecast, the flagship podcast of probabilistic computing. I'm Jay Kastronakis, executive editor of Verge. And today, we are talking about quantum computers. Quantum is hot right now. Trump just issued an executive order saying that America, quote, stands at the cusp of a quantum revolution. The order demands that America accelerate deployment and commercialization of quantum computing. Meanwhile, his science adviser promised that the US government will develop a computer, quote, powerful enough for scientific discovery by 2028. Meanwhile, Microsoft just unveiled Majorana two, its second generation quantum computing chip. Last year, Microsoft CEO, Sasha Nadella, said that its team had created a new state of matter that had only been theorized a hundred years ago. This year, the new Majorana two chip has apparently, quote, put the team on a path to achieve a scalable quantum computer that is commercially valuable by 2029. These are big ambitious goals. Like I said, quantum is hot right now. There are a lot of big promises and a lot of money flowing into the space. We were really interested in what's real and what's the hype. So we had science writer, Sophia Chen, dig into this for us. She's joining me today along with Verge tech editor, Marina Galperina. But first, here's what's happening on The Verge today. This is ninety seconds on The Verge for Thursday, 07/09/2026. It's only July, but Anthropic has launched what my colleague Hayden Field is calling Claude Wrapped. It's a new dashboard that shows how much time you're using Claude, your top days, how much time you're spending, that sort of thing. If you're using Claude enough to bother checking this feature, you might wanna take a break. Fortunately, Anthropic is also adding a feature that can send you reminders to sign off. So maybe take a look at that. Meanwhile, OpenAI is finally upgrading ChatGPT's voice mode with a new model that it says is far more capable. I don't want the needles to be too big. What do you think? If you go up, it's gonna get kinda baggy. Although baggy is very popular now, don't you think? It is. ChatChibiT's voice mode has been on a two year old model until now, and it's been pretty bad. You might have seen that one guy on TikTok who gets chatty b t to give dumb or bizarre responses. The old model is part of the reason why. I think that guy might have single handedly embarrassed OpenAI enough into upgrading it. OpenAI even gave him early access to test the new model. So we'll see if he can break it. Finally, CharacterAI, the AI chatbot role playing service, is getting into AI generated vertical video micro dramas. I watched a couple episodes. It only took a couple minutes, You know? And they completely break my brain. I think everyone should watch these just to understand how bewildering they are and to recognize what the end state is of TikTok …
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by Peter Shor
“Peter Shor's 1994 algorithm theorized quantum computers could break RSA, prompting development of post-quantum cryptography”
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“covering Microsoft's Majorana two chip, IBM's 2029 data center roadmap, Google's hardware pivot”
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