How to use Premortems to predict failure - Anu Jagga-Narang (AT&T)
Episode
34 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Productivity, Health & Wellness, Leadership
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Premortem Framework: Conduct sessions at two key moments—before development starts after discovery is complete, or midway when signals indicate dysfunction. Sessions take 30 minutes maximum, focusing on specific launches with clear objectives rather than vague backlogs. The exercise works by having teams imagine the product failed six months post-launch and writing detailed stories explaining why.
- ✓Risk Classification System: Use Shreyas Doshi's framework to categorize risks into three types—tigers (clear threats that will kill the launch), paper tigers (risks under control but need team reassurance), and elephants (unspoken issues everyone feels but nobody discusses). Teams vote once per issue, with two votes allowed for paper tigers and elephants, preventing vote inflation and maintaining focus.
- ✓Psychological Safety Requirements: Run sessions with core product managers and engineers using anonymous tools like Idea Boards rather than named platforms like Coda. Leaders must create permission for teams to surface weak assumptions and hidden dependencies that are socially difficult to voice. Including stakeholders can shift focus from tactical to strategic, potentially reducing team openness about real concerns.
- ✓Action Planning Process: After voting, assign owners and next steps to the most upvoted critical issues. Track mitigation plans over time and revisit premortems periodically as projects evolve. One team discovered performance issues were the top concern despite appearing fine in testing—addressing this immediately prevented launch failure. Premortems without follow-through actions become meaningless noise.
- ✓AI Impact Considerations: AI increases the need for premortems rather than reducing it, enabling teams to ship features for wrong problems faster with false confidence. AI can summarize themes, identify duplicate risks, and track mitigation plans, but cannot create psychological safety, surface unspoken elephants, make trade-off decisions, or own consequences of failed launches—keeping premortems fundamentally human judgment exercises.
What It Covers
Anu Jagga-Narang, product leader at AT&T, explains how to conduct premortems—hypothetical disaster prevention exercises created by psychologist Gary Klein. The technique uses prospective hindsight to combat optimism bias, helping teams identify risks before launch by imagining failure has occurred and working backwards to understand why.
Key Questions Answered
- •Premortem Framework: Conduct sessions at two key moments—before development starts after discovery is complete, or midway when signals indicate dysfunction. Sessions take 30 minutes maximum, focusing on specific launches with clear objectives rather than vague backlogs. The exercise works by having teams imagine the product failed six months post-launch and writing detailed stories explaining why.
- •Risk Classification System: Use Shreyas Doshi's framework to categorize risks into three types—tigers (clear threats that will kill the launch), paper tigers (risks under control but need team reassurance), and elephants (unspoken issues everyone feels but nobody discusses). Teams vote once per issue, with two votes allowed for paper tigers and elephants, preventing vote inflation and maintaining focus.
- •Psychological Safety Requirements: Run sessions with core product managers and engineers using anonymous tools like Idea Boards rather than named platforms like Coda. Leaders must create permission for teams to surface weak assumptions and hidden dependencies that are socially difficult to voice. Including stakeholders can shift focus from tactical to strategic, potentially reducing team openness about real concerns.
- •Action Planning Process: After voting, assign owners and next steps to the most upvoted critical issues. Track mitigation plans over time and revisit premortems periodically as projects evolve. One team discovered performance issues were the top concern despite appearing fine in testing—addressing this immediately prevented launch failure. Premortems without follow-through actions become meaningless noise.
- •AI Impact Considerations: AI increases the need for premortems rather than reducing it, enabling teams to ship features for wrong problems faster with false confidence. AI can summarize themes, identify duplicate risks, and track mitigation plans, but cannot create psychological safety, surface unspoken elephants, make trade-off decisions, or own consequences of failed launches—keeping premortems fundamentally human judgment exercises.
Notable Moment
A team running a premortem before a major launch discovered performance issues topped everyone's concerns, despite testing environments showing acceptable results. Nobody had voiced this worry until the anonymous exercise created safety to speak up. Immediately prioritizing performance fixes turned the situation around, preventing what would have been a failed launch.
Episode Transcript
Sometimes failures are predictable before we launch a product or a feature, and it is socially very hard to say those out loud. What if this is, like, a resounding success? Do we need to think about that as well? If anything, AI increases the need for premortals instead of reducing it. A paper tiger is a risk that others may be thinking it is a risk, but the owner of the risk believes that they have it under control and they just want to reassure the team. I'm a product leader at AT and T. I recently moved into the role. I'm focused on helping the team strengthen their product strategy and how PMs are coached to lead outcomes instead of feature based delivery. We're very AI focused, product team building a lot of features where the customers can get the appropriate answers. How do you get people attuned to to the right level? We don't have to be apocalyptical about it. We can frame it as it was an utter disaster. Annie, thank you so much for joining us this week. How are you doing today? I'm very good. Thank you, Randy. How are you? Doing alright. We haven't recorded actually in a week or two, so it's it's nice to get back into the groove. And, we met at an event that I ran in New York with a few other lovely former guests and and wonderful people, And you came up and had some really great questions afterwards, and then you said you wanted to come on the podcast, but you had some really good topics. And and now here you are. This is fantastic. Yeah. I'm excited about it. So we're gonna talk today about about pre mortems. But, you know, like I said, I've I've met you. I know who you are. Not everyone does. So can you give us a quick introduction? What are you doing these days, and how did you first get into product? Yeah. Absolutely. I'm a product leader at AT and T. For, those not in The US, AT and T is a telecommunication company. I recently moved into the role, where I'm focused on helping the team strengthen their product strategy, how products are built, how problems are defined, and how decisions are made, and how PMs are coached to lead outcomes instead of feature based delivery. Right before this role, I was leading a team that is building AT and T's search and virtual assistant experience. So think of it as a chatbot experience. I have done that role for five years, and we were very AI focused product team building a lot of, features where the customers can get the appropriate answers for questions that they're looking for and get the support for AT and T products and services. And how how did you get into the whole world of product management in the first place? I I went to school to be a software engineer …
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Books, tools, and gear mentioned in this episode
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Tools
- Idea BoardsRecommended
“Run sessions with core product managers and engineers using anonymous tools like Idea Boards rather than named platforms like Coda”
“using anonymous tools like Idea Boards rather than named platforms like Coda”
other
by Gary Klein
“explains how to conduct premortems—hypothetical disaster prevention exercises created by psychologist Gary Klein. The technique uses prospective hindsight to combat optimism bias”
by Shreyas Doshi
“Use Shreyas Doshi's framework to categorize risks into three types—tigers (clear threats that will kill the launch), paper tigers (risks under control but need team reassurance), and elephants (unspoken issues everyone feels but nobody discusses)”
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