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The Meb Faber Show

Turning Expiring Options Into Venture Exposure [Vested’s Dave Thornton] | #597

43 min episode · 2 min read
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Episode

43 min

Read time

2 min

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Stock Option Abandonment: Approximately 70% of startup employees forfeit vested stock options worth hundreds of billions because they lack cash to exercise within the 90-day post-termination window, creating systematic opportunity for third-party capital providers.
  • Purchase Discount Strategy: Vested acquires shares at third-party board-approved fair market value which includes a discount for lack of marketability, typically taking 25-50% of employee shares depending on strike price delta to fund the exercise.
  • Proprietary Selection Model: The platform uses employee behavioral signals like early exercise patterns, share counter-offers, and voluntary forfeiture decisions combined with quota-carrying sales rep data to predict company performance and select top 20% of venture-backed firms.
  • Dual Liquidity Paths: Portfolio exits occur through traditional corporate events like IPOs and acquisitions plus individual-level liquidity when employees access company-sponsored tenders or secondary markets, with acquisitions representing 75% of exits and individual sales 25%.

What It Covers

Vested provides capital to startup employees to exercise expiring stock options in exchange for equity exposure, creating diversified venture portfolios with 200+ positions across top-tier private companies using proprietary employee behavior data.

Key Questions Answered

  • Stock Option Abandonment: Approximately 70% of startup employees forfeit vested stock options worth hundreds of billions because they lack cash to exercise within the 90-day post-termination window, creating systematic opportunity for third-party capital providers.
  • Purchase Discount Strategy: Vested acquires shares at third-party board-approved fair market value which includes a discount for lack of marketability, typically taking 25-50% of employee shares depending on strike price delta to fund the exercise.
  • Proprietary Selection Model: The platform uses employee behavioral signals like early exercise patterns, share counter-offers, and voluntary forfeiture decisions combined with quota-carrying sales rep data to predict company performance and select top 20% of venture-backed firms.
  • Dual Liquidity Paths: Portfolio exits occur through traditional corporate events like IPOs and acquisitions plus individual-level liquidity when employees access company-sponsored tenders or secondary markets, with acquisitions representing 75% of exits and individual sales 25%.

Notable Moment

Vested discovered that startup employees who use their equity tracking tool called Vestimate abandon stock options at 55% rates compared to 70% for non-users, demonstrating how basic education dramatically reduces wealth-destroying forfeiture behavior.

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