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The Meb Faber Show

Tobias Carlisle - Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and The Ancient Art of Risk-Taking | #600

50 min episode · 2 min read
·

Episode

50 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Investing, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Valuation extremes: The Shiller CAPE ratio exceeds 40, a level historically only reached in the late 1990s. No stock market closing above 40 year-end has ever produced above-average ten-year returns, with most showing negative real returns across global markets.
  • Size factor reversal: Since 2015, large caps have massively outperformed small caps by 1.7% annually, reversing the historical pattern from 1926. Small caps now trade at 16x earnings versus large caps at 22x, creating a potential mean reversion opportunity with both multiple expansion and earnings growth potential.
  • General Re transaction: Buffett avoided 35% capital gains tax on inflated Coca-Cola holdings by issuing Berkshire stock at premium valuations to acquire General Re's bond portfolio in 1998. When markets crashed, bonds rallied while growth stocks fell, demonstrating defensive positioning without triggering taxable events.
  • Burlington Northern returns: Buffett invested $26 billion cash in 2009 for a $44 billion railway purchase during zero interest rates. The capital-intensive business has already paid $55 billion in dividends and is valued between $100-200 billion today, exploiting accelerated depreciation tax changes for extraordinary returns.

What It Covers

Tobias Carlisle discusses his new book merging Warren Buffett's investment philosophy with Sun Tzu's military strategy, focusing on downside protection, asymmetric opportunities, and Buffett's major trades including General Re, Burlington Northern, and Japanese trading houses.

Key Questions Answered

  • Valuation extremes: The Shiller CAPE ratio exceeds 40, a level historically only reached in the late 1990s. No stock market closing above 40 year-end has ever produced above-average ten-year returns, with most showing negative real returns across global markets.
  • Size factor reversal: Since 2015, large caps have massively outperformed small caps by 1.7% annually, reversing the historical pattern from 1926. Small caps now trade at 16x earnings versus large caps at 22x, creating a potential mean reversion opportunity with both multiple expansion and earnings growth potential.
  • General Re transaction: Buffett avoided 35% capital gains tax on inflated Coca-Cola holdings by issuing Berkshire stock at premium valuations to acquire General Re's bond portfolio in 1998. When markets crashed, bonds rallied while growth stocks fell, demonstrating defensive positioning without triggering taxable events.
  • Burlington Northern returns: Buffett invested $26 billion cash in 2009 for a $44 billion railway purchase during zero interest rates. The capital-intensive business has already paid $55 billion in dividends and is valued between $100-200 billion today, exploiting accelerated depreciation tax changes for extraordinary returns.

Notable Moment

Carlisle reveals Buffett's Apple investment as potentially his greatest trade ever because anyone could have made it after activists Icahn and Einhorn forced the buyback program, yet Buffett waited for perfect conditions before deploying $40 billion and quadrupling his position.

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Episode Transcript

Welcome to the Meb Faber show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth. Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser. Better investing starts here. Matt Faber is the cofounder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management. Due to industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambria's funds on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not the opinion of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates. For more information, visit cambriainvestments.com. Today's show is sponsored by Cambria. Do you hold legacy investment positions with significant gains? What if you could transition into an ETF without facing a large tax bill? You can with the three fifty one ETF exchange. Here's how it works. Investors contribute stocks or other securities to a newly formed ETF in exchange for ETF shares. As long as the special rules and diversification requirements are met, the investor is essentially able to seed the launch of the ETF without an immediate taxable event. Because ETFs typically don't distribute any capital gains, investors don't face taxes until they sell their ETF shares, allowing for better control over the timing of the tax event. Are you ready to explore a three fifty one ETF exchange? Visit cambriafunds.com forward slash three fifty one to take the next step in innovative, tax savvy investing with Cambria today. Cambria Investment Management l p, Cambria is a registered investment adviser. Information set forth herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial investment tax or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments are subject to risk, including the risk of loss of principal. Welcome back everybody. Today's guest is back on the show for, I think, the fourth time. Tobias Carlisle, fan favorite. Toby's the founder of Acquire's Fund, serves as the portfolio manager of firm's deep so deep value strategy. He runs two ETFs, DeepZig. He also hosts the value after hours on YouTube. He's written a few books. He's got a new one, y'all. Soldier of Fortune, Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu, and the ancient art of risk taking. Toby, welcome back to the show. Hey, Meb. Thanks. That's a very kind introduction. Good to be back. Good to see you again. This is author month because we just had on our buddy, Morgan. And so between the three of us, we're averaging about 3,000,000 books sold per copy per per publication title. But for listeners, like so when you write a book, usually, when you're sending it to friends, like Toby did with me, a lot of people are like, testimonials or, hey. Take a look at this book. And I hate reading digital books. Like, I'm a hard copy person. But the cool news, AI solves this. And so our producer, Colby, shout out, said, hey, Meb. There's an app called Speechify. And …

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  • The Shiller CAPE ratio exceeds 40, a level historically only reached in the late 1990s. No stock market closing above 40 year-end has ever produced above-average ten-year returns, with most showing negative real returns across global markets.

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