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The Intelligence (Economist)

Emissions possible: EU petrol ban quashed

20 min episode · 2 min read
·
Emissions Possible

Episode

20 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Fundraising & VC, Leadership, Sales & Revenue

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • EV Adoption Reality: European electric vehicle sales reach only one in five cars in 2025, projected to hit three-quarters by 2035 at best, far below expectations due to higher costs, limited small car models, and inconsistent government subsidies like Germany's collapsed sales after removing incentives.
  • Chinese Competition Threat: Chinese automakers capture 10.7% of Western European market share despite hefty EU tariffs, growing one percentage point year-over-year through hybrid vehicles not subject to tariffs, forcing European manufacturers to maintain electrification plans to compete in China and global South markets.
  • Fed Chair Politics: Kevin Hassett leads as Trump's likely Federal Reserve chair nominee, transitioning from technocratic economist to political operator over the past decade, raising unprecedented concerns about partisan influence over monetary policy traditionally governed by independent technocracy regardless of party affiliation.
  • Monetary Independence Risk: Trump's potential to simultaneously appoint the Fed chair, replace Lisa Cook through court action, and fill Jerome Powell's vacated board seat in May creates unprecedented executive influence over Federal Reserve decisions, particularly concerning interest rate cuts to reduce government debt servicing costs.

What It Covers

The EU reverses its 2035 petrol car ban, allowing 90% emissions cuts instead of full prohibition. Donald Trump prepares to nominate a new Federal Reserve chair amid concerns about political interference in monetary policy independence.

Key Questions Answered

  • EV Adoption Reality: European electric vehicle sales reach only one in five cars in 2025, projected to hit three-quarters by 2035 at best, far below expectations due to higher costs, limited small car models, and inconsistent government subsidies like Germany's collapsed sales after removing incentives.
  • Chinese Competition Threat: Chinese automakers capture 10.7% of Western European market share despite hefty EU tariffs, growing one percentage point year-over-year through hybrid vehicles not subject to tariffs, forcing European manufacturers to maintain electrification plans to compete in China and global South markets.
  • Fed Chair Politics: Kevin Hassett leads as Trump's likely Federal Reserve chair nominee, transitioning from technocratic economist to political operator over the past decade, raising unprecedented concerns about partisan influence over monetary policy traditionally governed by independent technocracy regardless of party affiliation.
  • Monetary Independence Risk: Trump's potential to simultaneously appoint the Fed chair, replace Lisa Cook through court action, and fill Jerome Powell's vacated board seat in May creates unprecedented executive influence over Federal Reserve decisions, particularly concerning interest rate cuts to reduce government debt servicing costs.

Notable Moment

The Economist coins slop as word of the year, describing AI-generated content flooding social media and search results. The term suggests a potential upside where overwhelming fake content might restore trust in established news organizations and force platforms to improve moderation.

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Episode Transcript

Looking for more investing options? Meet Cboe, the exchange that pioneered options trading. With exclusive trading products like VIX and SPX options, Cboe can help you trade in any market environment. There are risks associated with Cboe company products. Review the disclosures and disclaimers at cboe.com/us underscore disclaimers. Are you trying to seize the value from AI? Schneider Electric electrifies, automates, and digitalizes every industry, business, and home, driving efficiency and sustainability for all. Listen to their AI at Scale podcast to hear from AI experts and to get the answers and practical examples of AI for energy and industry. Search AI at Scale podcast by Schneider Electric today. The Economist. Hello, and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Rosie Blore. And I'm Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. Next year, Donald Trump will pick a new chair of the Federal Reserve. The names are already swirling, as is anxiety that the choice may be a political one. The wait is over. Get your bow ties and fancy hats ready. The capstone award show of twenty twenty five is here. It's time to anoint The Economist's word of the year. First up though. Europe's Green Deal passed in 2023 was bold. Our ambition is crystal clear. The future of our clean tech industry has to be made in Europe. Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, underlined the pledge for a healthy planet. We stay the course, we stay ambitious, and we stick to our growth strategy. A move towards electric cars was at the center of that strategy. Yesterday, the ambitious policy hit a roadblock. The EU had promised to ban selling new diesel and petrol vehicles from 2035. Now it's put the brakes on that plan. It's been a difficult few years for the European auto industry, and one of the things that they've been pushing hard for is a watering down of the EU's plan to ban petrol cars. And that's what we've now seen happen. Tom Lee Devlin is The Economist's business editor. But I think the important point here is that favoring petrol power in the long run, it's not really gonna be in the interests of European and American carmakers. So, Tom, what's really going on here? Is the EU just shifting the goalposts, or is it a full u-turn? So instead of an outright ban, carmakers will now have to cut their tailpipe emissions by 90% by 2035 compared with the 2021 levels. Interim targets along the way and also goals for electrifying commercial vehicles have been watered down as well. So in one sense, yes, I think you can say this is a reversal. In in 2035, you are still going to be able to buy a petrol car in the EU, but it is still somewhat restrictive for the European auto industry. And why has this happened? Two years ago, when this commitment was first set, growth expectations …

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