Boom with a view: our economy of the year
Episode
21 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Investing, Science & Discovery, Economics & Policy
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Economy Ranking Methodology: Countries are scored across five metrics—inflation proximity to 2%, inflation breadth (share of goods rising over 2% annually), GDP growth, employment growth, and stock market returns—then combined into a composite ranking of rich-world economies.
- ✓Energy Price Impact: The 2022 Russian gas shock remains the primary factor dragging down economies like Estonia, Finland, and Slovakia. Countries highly exposed to Russian gas prices continue underperforming three years later, while less-exposed Southern European nations thrive with tourism and immigration-driven growth.
- ✓Stock Market Patterns: Israel's stock market led global returns in 2025, outperforming the US significantly. Historical data shows countries named Economy of the Year see average 20% stock market gains the following year, suggesting Portugal may continue outperforming in 2026.
- ✓Deflation Risk Zone: Sweden's 0% inflation rate poses greater economic risk than moderate inflation. When inflation approaches zero, consumers delay purchases expecting lower prices, real debt burdens increase, and economies risk spiraling into deflation, which creates more problems than controlled 2% inflation.
What It Covers
The Economist ranks Portugal as 2025's top-performing economy based on five indicators: inflation, inflation breadth, GDP growth, employment, and stock market performance. Southern Europe continues its four-year winning streak after decades of poor performance.
Key Questions Answered
- •Economy Ranking Methodology: Countries are scored across five metrics—inflation proximity to 2%, inflation breadth (share of goods rising over 2% annually), GDP growth, employment growth, and stock market returns—then combined into a composite ranking of rich-world economies.
- •Energy Price Impact: The 2022 Russian gas shock remains the primary factor dragging down economies like Estonia, Finland, and Slovakia. Countries highly exposed to Russian gas prices continue underperforming three years later, while less-exposed Southern European nations thrive with tourism and immigration-driven growth.
- •Stock Market Patterns: Israel's stock market led global returns in 2025, outperforming the US significantly. Historical data shows countries named Economy of the Year see average 20% stock market gains the following year, suggesting Portugal may continue outperforming in 2026.
- •Deflation Risk Zone: Sweden's 0% inflation rate poses greater economic risk than moderate inflation. When inflation approaches zero, consumers delay purchases expecting lower prices, real debt burdens increase, and economies risk spiraling into deflation, which creates more problems than controlled 2% inflation.
Notable Moment
Denmark's stock market became 2025's worst performer despite strong fundamentals, dragged down entirely by Novo Nordisk's share price collapse after its Ozempic-driven surge in 2023, demonstrating how single-company concentration can distort national economic indicators.
Episode Transcript
Hey, Ryan Reynolds here. Wishing you a very happy half off holiday because right now Mint Mobile is offering you the gift of 50% off unlimited. To be clear, that's half price, not half the service. And Mint is still premium unlimited wireless for a great price. So that means a half day. Yeah. Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch. Upfront payment of $45 per free month. Plan equivalent to $15 per month required. New customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of networks busy. Taxes and fees extra. Hey. Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. You know, one of the perks about having four kids that you know about is actually getting a direct line to the big man up north. And this year, he wants you to know the best gift that you can give someone is the gift of Mint Mobile's unlimited wireless for $15 a month. Now you don't even need to wrap it. Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch. Upfront payment of $45 per three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. New customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes if network's busy. Taxes and fees extra. Cmintmobile.com. The Economist. Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. In India, the bottom rung of the caste system is occupied by the Dalits, once called untouchables, who make up perhaps a quarter of the country. Our correspondent says their exceptionally rich cuisine is woefully overlooked. And we take a ride on the River Thames, with a bunch of other commuters. The number of people moving around by river taxi is breaking Victorian era records, and it's even becoming a slightly more environmentally sound way to get around. First up though, I know what you're thinking. That overall, the world economy did okay in 2025, especially given all those tariff driven recession fears. You're thinking labor markets are pretty healthy and stock market returns have been pretty good. But you know that average picture hides a lot of variation and that some countries have had a far better 2025 than others. If only there were a way, you lament, to rank which countries did best. Well, fear not. Our senior economics writer, Callum Williams, is here to help. Our economy of the year ranking is composed of five different indicators. That's inflation, inflation breadth, GDP growth, employment growth, and share price growth. And what we do is we look at each of those indicators for as many different rich countries as we could find, and then we rank them all together. And we combine the rankings for each indicator. And so it produces a final score, and we use that to rank countries from best to worst. Inflation, I get. What's inflation breadth? It's a bit more complicated. Inflation is an average measure. Inflation breadth is the share of …
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