The anxiety rattling China’s youth

What It Covers

NPR's China correspondent Jennifer Pak examines China's two-track economy ahead of the 2026 National People's Congress GDP announcement, where sluggish domestic consumption, record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, and 12 million new graduates define the economic landscape.

Key Questions Answered

• •China's GDP targeting system: China sets annual GDP targets inherited from Soviet-era planning, and hits them almost every year (COVID 2022 being the exception) by mobilizing government, entrepreneurs, and investors in lockstep — signaling exactly which sectors receive fast-track approvals and capital.
• •Two-track economy risk: China's trade surplus hit a record $1.2 trillion in 2024 despite US-China tariffs, but the IMF warns this export-led model is unsustainable. Trading partners are retaliating, and China needs consumption-led growth — a shift blocked by falling wages, high youth unemployment, and declining property values.
• •Youth unemployment structural problem: A record 12 million graduates enter China's job market in 2025, facing double-digit unemployment rates. The shortage is not total jobs but well-paying jobs — the government's pivot toward industrial manufacturing and tech innovation creates fewer human positions than traditional sectors.
• •Property wealth destruction dampens spending: Homeowners represent the majority of Chinese households, and property prices have declined for four-plus consecutive years. This wealth erosion suppresses consumer confidence and delays major life purchases — young people are postponing marriage, skipping apartment purchases, and forgoing cars and appliances.