Trump’s National Support Is Cratering

What It Covers

NYT chief political analyst Nate Cohn breaks down a major Times poll showing Trump's approval rating at a record-low 37%, the collapse of his 2024 coalition among young and Hispanic voters, Democrats holding a 10-point lead in generic midterm balloting, and deep fractures forming inside both political parties ahead of 2026 and 2028.

Key Questions Answered

• •Trump's approval floor has broken: Trump's approval rating sits at 37% in the Times/CNN poll — the lowest recorded across his entire political career — with no structural support preventing further decline. On specific issues, cost-of-living approval drops to 28% and Iran strike approval to 30%, meaning even voters who still broadly approve of Trump reject his core policy decisions.
• •Hispanic and youth voter collapse is historically severe: Trump won over 40–45% of Hispanic voters and 18–29-year-olds in 2024. Those numbers have collapsed to 20% and 19% approval respectively, with disapproval at 71% and 76%. This is not merely a reversal of 2024 gains — it represents losses deeper than pre-2024 Republican baselines for both demographic groups.
• •Democrats hold a 10-point generic midterm lead: The Times poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points in congressional preference — the largest margin recorded this cycle. Cohn projects this lead is sufficient to retake the House despite Republican gerrymandering advantages, and potentially puts Senate control in play even in Republican-leaning states.
• •Democratic base wants economic populism, not ideological repositioning: When asked to choose between expanding housing supply versus cracking down on corporate monopolies to lower prices, Democratic-leaning voters chose the anti-monopoly approach by nearly 3-to-1. Only 20% of Democrats say the party is ideologically misaligned; the primary dissatisfaction is perceived ineffectiveness in opposing Trump, cited by over 75% of dissatisfied Democrats.
• •Historical precedent signals 2028 Democratic advantage: No president has retained White House control for their party when approval sits below 40%. The closest parallel is George W. Bush, whose approval fell to similar levels around 2005 due to Middle East conflict and high energy prices, ultimately producing Barack Obama's 7-point 2008 victory and near-filibuster-proof Senate majority for Democrats.