What are the key takeaways from this The Daily (NYT) episode?

Key insights include: **Trump's approval floor has broken:** Trump's approval rating sits at 37% in the Times/CNN poll — the lowest recorded across his entire political career — with no structural support preventing further decline. On specific issues, cost-of-living approval drops to 28% and Iran strike approval to 30%, meaning even voters who still broadly approve of Trump reject his core policy decisions.; **Hispanic and youth voter collapse is historically severe:** Trump won over 40–45% of Hispanic voters and 18–29-year-olds in 2024. Those numbers have collapsed to 20% and 19% approval respectively, with disapproval at 71% and 76%. This is not merely a reversal of 2024 gains — it represents losses deeper than pre-2024 Republican baselines for both demographic groups.; **Democrats hold a 10-point generic midterm lead:** The Times poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points in congressional preference — the largest margin recorded this cycle. Cohn projects this lead is sufficient to retake the House despite Republican gerrymandering advantages, and potentially puts Senate control in play even in Republican-leaning states.

What did Nate Cohn discuss on The Daily (NYT)?

NYT chief political analyst Nate Cohn breaks down a major Times poll showing Trump's approval rating at a record-low 37%, the collapse of his 2024 coalition among young and Hispanic voters, Democrats holding a 10-point lead in generic midterm balloting, and deep fractures forming inside both political parties ahead of 2026 and 2028. Key topics include: **Trump's approval floor has broken:** Trump's approval rating sits at 37% in the Times/CNN poll — the lowest recorded across his entire political career — with no structural support preventing further decline. On specific issues, cost-of-living approval drops to 28% and Iran strike approval to 30%, meaning even voters who still broadly approve of Trump reject his core policy decisions.; **Hispanic and youth voter collapse is historically severe:** Trump won over 40–45% of Hispanic voters and 18–29-year-olds in 2024. Those numbers have collapsed to 20% and 19% approval respectively, with disapproval at 71% and 76%. This is not merely a reversal of 2024 gains — it represents losses deeper than pre-2024 Republican baselines for both demographic groups..

How long is this episode of The Daily (NYT)?

This episode is 29 minutes long. SignalCast provides an AI-generated summary so you can get the key insights in about 3 minutes.

The Daily (NYT)

Trump’s National Support Is Cratering

May 22, 2026

29 min episode · 2 min read

Nate Cohn

Episode

29 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Career Growth, Leadership, Economics & Policy

AI-Generated Summary

Published May 22, 2026

Key Takeaways

✓Trump's approval floor has broken: Trump's approval rating sits at 37% in the Times/CNN poll — the lowest recorded across his entire political career — with no structural support preventing further decline. On specific issues, cost-of-living approval drops to 28% and Iran strike approval to 30%, meaning even voters who still broadly approve of Trump reject his core policy decisions.
✓Hispanic and youth voter collapse is historically severe: Trump won over 40–45% of Hispanic voters and 18–29-year-olds in 2024. Those numbers have collapsed to 20% and 19% approval respectively, with disapproval at 71% and 76%. This is not merely a reversal of 2024 gains — it represents losses deeper than pre-2024 Republican baselines for both demographic groups.
✓Democrats hold a 10-point generic midterm lead: The Times poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points in congressional preference — the largest margin recorded this cycle. Cohn projects this lead is sufficient to retake the House despite Republican gerrymandering advantages, and potentially puts Senate control in play even in Republican-leaning states.
✓Democratic base wants economic populism, not ideological repositioning: When asked to choose between expanding housing supply versus cracking down on corporate monopolies to lower prices, Democratic-leaning voters chose the anti-monopoly approach by nearly 3-to-1. Only 20% of Democrats say the party is ideologically misaligned; the primary dissatisfaction is perceived ineffectiveness in opposing Trump, cited by over 75% of dissatisfied Democrats.
✓Historical precedent signals 2028 Democratic advantage: No president has retained White House control for their party when approval sits below 40%. The closest parallel is George W. Bush, whose approval fell to similar levels around 2005 due to Middle East conflict and high energy prices, ultimately producing Barack Obama's 7-point 2008 victory and near-filibuster-proof Senate majority for Democrats.

What It Covers

NYT chief political analyst Nate Cohn breaks down a major Times poll showing Trump's approval rating at a record-low 37%, the collapse of his 2024 coalition among young and Hispanic voters, Democrats holding a 10-point lead in generic midterm balloting, and deep fractures forming inside both political parties ahead of 2026 and 2028.

Key Questions Answered

•Trump's approval floor has broken: Trump's approval rating sits at 37% in the Times/CNN poll — the lowest recorded across his entire political career — with no structural support preventing further decline. On specific issues, cost-of-living approval drops to 28% and Iran strike approval to 30%, meaning even voters who still broadly approve of Trump reject his core policy decisions.
•Hispanic and youth voter collapse is historically severe: Trump won over 40–45% of Hispanic voters and 18–29-year-olds in 2024. Those numbers have collapsed to 20% and 19% approval respectively, with disapproval at 71% and 76%. This is not merely a reversal of 2024 gains — it represents losses deeper than pre-2024 Republican baselines for both demographic groups.
•Democrats hold a 10-point generic midterm lead: The Times poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points in congressional preference — the largest margin recorded this cycle. Cohn projects this lead is sufficient to retake the House despite Republican gerrymandering advantages, and potentially puts Senate control in play even in Republican-leaning states.
•Democratic base wants economic populism, not ideological repositioning: When asked to choose between expanding housing supply versus cracking down on corporate monopolies to lower prices, Democratic-leaning voters chose the anti-monopoly approach by nearly 3-to-1. Only 20% of Democrats say the party is ideologically misaligned; the primary dissatisfaction is perceived ineffectiveness in opposing Trump, cited by over 75% of dissatisfied Democrats.
•Historical precedent signals 2028 Democratic advantage: No president has retained White House control for their party when approval sits below 40%. The closest parallel is George W. Bush, whose approval fell to similar levels around 2005 due to Middle East conflict and high energy prices, ultimately producing Barack Obama's 7-point 2008 victory and near-filibuster-proof Senate majority for Democrats.

Notable Moment

Cohn highlights a stark disconnect: while a majority of Republicans want the next GOP presidential candidate to follow Trump's lead, the broader general electorate wants a new direction by a 3-to-1 margin — a structural mismatch that Cohn identifies as the single largest electoral vulnerability facing the Republican Party heading into 2028.

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Episode Transcript

Brought to you by Apple Card. Hey, you could be earning 2% daily cash back on that purchase, and that one, and even that one. That's because Apple Card users earn 2% daily cash back on every purchase, including everyday items they buy online or in store when using their Apple Card with Apple Pay. Not an Apple Card customer? You can apply in the Wallet app on iPhone. Subject to credit approval, Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City branch. Terms and more at apple.co/benefits. From New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. A major new poll from The Times suggests that despite his seemingly unchecked power over the federal government and his own party, President Trump's national support is crumbling to record lows, and Democrats are now poised to win back many of the key voters who made Trump president in 2024. Today, chief political analyst Nate Cohn walks us through the polls results and what they mean for this fall's midterm elections and the future of both parties. It's Friday, May 22. Hi, Nate. Hello. How are you? I'm great. That was such an enthusiastic greeting. I had enough coffee, I guess. Well, I'm glad to have you in such high energetic caffeinated spirits. Well, it'll fade quickly. I promise. Nate, this big new poll that The Times conducted arrives at a really fascinating moment. Because if you're even a casual observer of American politics, you recognize that president Trump has racked up victory after victory after victory in his campaign to punish members of his party who he thinks has been disloyal in Indiana, in Louisiana, just a couple nights ago in Kentucky. It's been really a historic flexing of his power within the Republican party. But what you all found in this poll is that Trump's power over his party masks a real weakness and, frankly, an outright rejection of Trump nationally that's never been deeper in the level of Democratic popularity that we haven't seen in a really long time. So just summarize what you found here. We did not find very much good news for the president. We we did find that a majority of Republicans still support the president. So, you know, in that sense, the outcome of recent primary elections isn't very surprising. But beyond that core Republican base, the president has lost a tremendous amount of support. In terms of the president's approval rating, it was at just 37%. That is the lowest approval rating he's ever had in a time CNN poll. And we've been doing this poll for the entirety of his political life. Yep. And we're not alone on that. It's worth noting. The average of all the polls right now shows the president's approval rating is lower today than it has been at any time that he's been president going back to when he first took office in 2017. And this broad disillusionment has left the coalition that brought …

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