The Iranians Who Want More War

What It Covers

NYT correspondent Abdi Latif Dahir reports from Tehran during Ayatollah Khamenei's state funeral, revealing a fractured Iran where ultra-hardline factions — estimated at 10–20% of the population — actively sabotage a fragile US-Iran peace deal, while 70–80% of Iranians silently oppose continued war amid 400% food inflation.

Key Questions Answered

• •Hardliner minority power: Ultra-hardliners represent only 10–20% of Iran's 90 million citizens, yet they function as the theocracy's mobilizable base, showing up reliably at regime-organized events. Understanding this asymmetry matters: a small, loyal constituency can exert disproportionate political pressure precisely because the silent majority lacks equivalent organized representation within the system.
• •Rogue military action: The Revolutionary Guards attack on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz reportedly occurred without authorization from Iran's president or foreign minister, suggesting hardline factions within the military can unilaterally trigger international incidents. This means diplomatic agreements with Iran's civilian government carry structural risk from actors outside central command who face no accountability.
• •Supreme leader vacuum: Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, remains in hiding with reported facial burns and vocal cord damage from airstrikes. His father held absolute veto power over factional disputes; Mojtaba lacks equivalent religious and political clout. This leadership void allows minority factions to operate without a central authority capable of enforcing unity or disciplining rogue actors.
• •Legitimacy trap for peace: For Iran's supreme leader to fully endorse the US peace deal, he would effectively abandon the Islamic Republic's founding ideological identity — opposition to America and Israel. Pragmatist negotiators therefore cannot secure unambiguous supreme leader endorsement without threatening the regime's core legitimacy, creating a structural ceiling on how durable any negotiated agreement can realistically become.
• •Funeral as political theater: The Iranian government staged Khamenei's multi-day funeral as a choreographed display of national unity for foreign press, including assigned minders filing daily reports on journalists. Recognizing state-managed media access as a deliberate messaging tool — rather than organic public sentiment — is essential for accurately interpreting what governments want the outside world to believe versus ground-level reality.