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The Daily (NYT)

More Trump Tariffs Are Coming

40 min episode · 2 min read
·
Jamieson Grier

Episode

40 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Health & Wellness, Relationships, Investing

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • New tariff pipeline: The administration is preparing two distinct tariff waves to replace those struck down by the Supreme Court. The first targets 80-plus countries over inadequate forced-labor laws, imposing roughly 10% tariffs. The second targets 40-plus countries for subsidies and currency manipulation. Both use legal justifications Greer believes are more durable than the previous emergency-powers approach.
  • Greer's three success metrics: Greer measures tariff effectiveness using manufacturing share of GDP, trade deficit reduction, and real wage growth. The trade deficit with China fell 30% and overall goods deficit dropped 25%. Manufacturing wages rose 5% in one year and net manufacturing jobs turned positive in Q1 2026 for the first time in several years.
  • Inflation attribution dispute: Greer rejects Federal Reserve studies showing tariffs drove goods inflation, pointing to the 2018 China tariffs when inflation actually fell from 2.7% to 1.7% the following year. He attributes current price pressures to money supply, the Iran war, and services categories like healthcare and insurance — not import duties on goods.
  • Unilateral-over-coalition strategy: Greer explicitly rejects the approach of coordinating with European and Canadian allies to collectively pressure China, arguing other nations move too slowly and have conflicting interests. His framework prioritizes unilateral U.S. action, accepting diplomatic friction with traditional allies as an acceptable cost of protecting domestic manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
  • Policy reversal difficulty: Swanson assesses that unwinding Trump's tariffs would be politically and structurally difficult for any successor administration. Companies have already reorganized supply chains, trading partners have restructured bilateral relationships, and the Biden administration itself kept Trump's first-term China tariffs. The breadth of second-term tariffs across dozens of industries compounds this lock-in effect.

What It Covers

NYT reporter Ana Swanson profiles Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative architecting Trump's tariff agenda. Despite a Supreme Court ruling striking down broad tariffs and public approval ratings at 37%, Greer is preparing two new tariff tranches targeting 80-plus countries using legal frameworks designed to withstand future court challenges.

Key Questions Answered

  • New tariff pipeline: The administration is preparing two distinct tariff waves to replace those struck down by the Supreme Court. The first targets 80-plus countries over inadequate forced-labor laws, imposing roughly 10% tariffs. The second targets 40-plus countries for subsidies and currency manipulation. Both use legal justifications Greer believes are more durable than the previous emergency-powers approach.
  • Greer's three success metrics: Greer measures tariff effectiveness using manufacturing share of GDP, trade deficit reduction, and real wage growth. The trade deficit with China fell 30% and overall goods deficit dropped 25%. Manufacturing wages rose 5% in one year and net manufacturing jobs turned positive in Q1 2026 for the first time in several years.
  • Inflation attribution dispute: Greer rejects Federal Reserve studies showing tariffs drove goods inflation, pointing to the 2018 China tariffs when inflation actually fell from 2.7% to 1.7% the following year. He attributes current price pressures to money supply, the Iran war, and services categories like healthcare and insurance — not import duties on goods.
  • Unilateral-over-coalition strategy: Greer explicitly rejects the approach of coordinating with European and Canadian allies to collectively pressure China, arguing other nations move too slowly and have conflicting interests. His framework prioritizes unilateral U.S. action, accepting diplomatic friction with traditional allies as an acceptable cost of protecting domestic manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
  • Policy reversal difficulty: Swanson assesses that unwinding Trump's tariffs would be politically and structurally difficult for any successor administration. Companies have already reorganized supply chains, trading partners have restructured bilateral relationships, and the Biden administration itself kept Trump's first-term China tariffs. The breadth of second-term tariffs across dozens of industries compounds this lock-in effect.

Notable Moment

Greer draws a direct personal connection between his father losing a plastic injection molding job to Asian competition decades ago and his current tariff policy — then acknowledges mid-conversation with Swanson that he had not consciously made that link before she pointed it out.

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Episode Transcript

Self directed investing, trading, full service wealth management, automated investing, financial planning, thematic investing, retirement planning. And to think that's just a small taste of what Schwab offers. Because Schwab knows when it comes to your finances, choice matters. No matter your goals, investing style, life stage, or experience, Schwab has everything you need all in one place, so you can invest your way. Visit schwab.com to learn more. From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroeff. This is The Daily. For people right across America, everything has been getting more expensive. From food to fuel, health care to heating, everyone's feeling the pain. Our CBS News poll says that seven in 10 Americans say they are frustrated or even angry with the administration's approach to the economy. At a moment when inflation and affordability are on everyone's mind. The new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank reveals nearly 90% of president Trump's tariffs in 2025 were paid by consumers and businesses. And when economists are saying that tariffs are partially to blame for the relentless rise in prices, My colleague, Anna Swanson, talked to the most influential driver of president Trump's tariff policy, Jamieson Grier. Grier told her that despite tanking public opinion, the Trump administration is now planning a new slate of tariffs that it believes will survive any legal challenge. So according to your own metrics, are tariffs working? They are. Yeah. I think we've been wildly successful. Today, why Greer thinks that Trump's tariff policy has been a success and why the administration is doubling down. Whenever you're trying to change policy in a big way and you're upending special interests or corporate interests, people are gonna come back and try to fight that. They want the status quo. We don't want the status quo. It's Monday, July 20. Anna, you spent hours with Jameson Grier, not a household name, but someone who is very important in crafting US trade policy as The US trade representative. So just say why this guy matters and how much. Yeah. So he has become very influential. So the fascinating thing about Jameson Grier is he's not your typical Trump appointee. He's not a billionaire. He's not brash. You might remember we had Peter Navarro on this show before as well. Yep. Navarro is kinda more of a loose cannon, but Greer, on the other hand, is quite considered. He's more of a quiet, low key type of guy, but he has a lot of knowledge in the trade law. He has a lot of experience in trade, and he really is the brains behind a lot of the trade agenda at this point. Okay. So after you sat down with him a couple times, I understand, what was your main takeaway? So even though he's facing a lot of headwinds, including the fact that public sentiment for Trump is low, you've got these legal challenges against the administration's tariffs, the Supreme Court overturned a big swath of the trade …

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