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Chosen by War: The Rise of Iran’s New Supreme Leader

33 min episode · 2 min read
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Chosen By War

Episode

33 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Relationships, Fundraising & VC, Leadership

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Succession mechanics: Iran's 88-member Assembly of Experts holds constitutional authority to appoint supreme leaders, but the actual selection process runs parallel through Revolutionary Guards generals, former intelligence chiefs, and political factions conducting direct lobbying campaigns. Understanding this dual-track system — formal clerical vote plus military backchanneling — is essential for accurately reading future Iranian leadership transitions.
  • Wartime consolidation: The Revolutionary Guards backed Mojtaba unanimously because his appointment guaranteed continuity of their political, economic, and military grip on Iran. The Guards control the economy, outrank the conventional military, and command Iran's war operations. Any supreme leader they oppose would face institutional obstruction, making their endorsement a prerequisite for governing effectively during active conflict.
  • Moderate opposition strategy: Reformist factions, led by National Security Council head Ali Larijani and President Pezeshkian, attempted to block Mojtaba by presenting testimony from the late Ayatollah's two closest aides and an unsealed written will stating Khamenei explicitly did not want family members to succeed him. This nearly forced a revote before Guards generals conducted a direct counter-lobbying campaign.
  • Biographical hardline indicators: Mojtaba volunteered as a 17-year-old soldier in the Iran-Iraq War, studied Shia jurisprudence in Qom, then managed security and military affairs inside his father's office. Sources link him to alleged manipulation of the 2009 presidential election in Ahmadinejad's favor and to coordinating Basij paramilitary crackdowns on Green Movement protesters, resulting in over 30 deaths and 300 detentions.
  • Strategic miscalculation risk: US and Israeli strikes that killed the previous supreme leader, along with public threats to eliminate his successor, removed the conditions under which a moderate candidate could have plausibly won selection. Analysts and Iranian sources argue this military pressure produced the opposite of its stated goal — replacing one hardline leader with a younger, potentially more ideologically rigid successor whose personal losses deepen his motivation for confrontation.

What It Covers

NYT correspondent Farnaz Fassihi details how Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran's assassinated supreme leader, was selected as Iran's third supreme leader through a contested succession process involving Revolutionary Guards, moderate clerics, and competing political factions, with US and Israeli military pressure paradoxically accelerating the appointment of a hardline successor.

Key Questions Answered

  • Succession mechanics: Iran's 88-member Assembly of Experts holds constitutional authority to appoint supreme leaders, but the actual selection process runs parallel through Revolutionary Guards generals, former intelligence chiefs, and political factions conducting direct lobbying campaigns. Understanding this dual-track system — formal clerical vote plus military backchanneling — is essential for accurately reading future Iranian leadership transitions.
  • Wartime consolidation: The Revolutionary Guards backed Mojtaba unanimously because his appointment guaranteed continuity of their political, economic, and military grip on Iran. The Guards control the economy, outrank the conventional military, and command Iran's war operations. Any supreme leader they oppose would face institutional obstruction, making their endorsement a prerequisite for governing effectively during active conflict.
  • Moderate opposition strategy: Reformist factions, led by National Security Council head Ali Larijani and President Pezeshkian, attempted to block Mojtaba by presenting testimony from the late Ayatollah's two closest aides and an unsealed written will stating Khamenei explicitly did not want family members to succeed him. This nearly forced a revote before Guards generals conducted a direct counter-lobbying campaign.
  • Biographical hardline indicators: Mojtaba volunteered as a 17-year-old soldier in the Iran-Iraq War, studied Shia jurisprudence in Qom, then managed security and military affairs inside his father's office. Sources link him to alleged manipulation of the 2009 presidential election in Ahmadinejad's favor and to coordinating Basij paramilitary crackdowns on Green Movement protesters, resulting in over 30 deaths and 300 detentions.
  • Strategic miscalculation risk: US and Israeli strikes that killed the previous supreme leader, along with public threats to eliminate his successor, removed the conditions under which a moderate candidate could have plausibly won selection. Analysts and Iranian sources argue this military pressure produced the opposite of its stated goal — replacing one hardline leader with a younger, potentially more ideologically rigid successor whose personal losses deepen his motivation for confrontation.

Notable Moment

The succession process nearly reversed after moderates produced what they described as a sealed written document from the late Ayatollah himself, stating he opposed any family member inheriting his position — a direct contradiction of the revolution's founding anti-monarchical principles that briefly threatened to derail Mojtaba's appointment entirely.

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Episode Transcript

True New York Times. I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Got some breaking news out of Iran. We are hearing for the first time from the new supreme leader of Iran. Today's statement dismissed any hope of Iran backing down. He says, quote, avenging the blood of your martyrs is a top priority and that attacks on Gulf Arab neighbors will continue. At the heart of the Iranian regime's defiant stance toward The United States and Israel in this war is its new supreme leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, the son of the regime's long time ruler. He said that all US bases should immediately be closed in the region, and he says that those bases will be attacked as He went on to say that the Strait Of Hormuz should remain closed. Today, my colleague, Farnaz Fassihi, on the extraordinary behind the scenes jockeying that led to his selection and the growing consensus that The US and Israeli strategy motivated Iran to replace one hard line leader with another. It's Tuesday, March 17. Farnaz, welcome back to the show. I just wanna say at the outset that there are moments when our colleagues, because of their area of expertise, just become indispensable to the daily. And you're one of those people now because you know Iran and its government inside and out. So thank you for making time for us. Thank you for having me, Michael. Your latest line of reporting has been focused on Iran's new supreme leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, the son of the assassinated supreme leader. And Mujtaba Khamenei is filling a job that is both essential for the regime's survival and arguably now the most dangerous job in the world. And we wanna talk to you about what his selection means for Iran and the war and the behind the scenes process by which he was chosen. So where do you think we should start? I think we should start by acknowledging that Mosheba Khamenei's rise as the third supreme leader came as a surprise to even Iran watchers and insiders in Iran. Although he was his father's son and had been working closely with him in his office, the fact that he would become a supreme leader and succeed his father was not straightforward. It wasn't necessarily predestined. And it's an irony because the Islamic Revolution came about so there would be an end to monarchy rule and power being passed from father to son. Just explain that. Well, the Islamic Revolution in 1979 came about as a result of this movement to topple the Shah and thousands of years of monarchy where power was handed from father to son with this idea that power would go back to the people. Even when the first supreme leader, the founding father of the revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, died, power didn't go to his son or to his relatives. It went to then the president, the former Ayatollah Khomeini. So that's why it's an irony to now have his …

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