After Venezuela, Is Cuba Next?

What It Covers

The Trump administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, implements an aggressive strategy to topple Cuba's communist regime by cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela and Mexico, creating the island's worst crisis in 67 years and potentially ending six decades of failed US attempts at regime change.

Key Questions Answered

• •Oil Embargo Strategy: Cuba produces only 40% of its domestic oil needs and previously relied on Venezuela and Mexico for the remaining 60%. Trump's executive order threatens tariffs on any country supplying Cuba with oil, forcing Mexico to suspend shipments and cutting off both major suppliers simultaneously, crippling transportation, hospitals, schools, and food distribution systems across the island.
• •Venezuela Connection: Rubio explicitly linked ousting Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to weakening Cuba, recognizing that Venezuela provided Cuba with military training, intelligence support, and large oil shipments for decades. Capturing Maduro in January 2025 eliminated Cuba's closest ally and primary oil supplier, making this a calculated two-step strategy rather than separate foreign policy actions.
• •Migration Escape Valve: For 66 years, Cuba's regime survived crises by opening borders during peak discontent, allowing dissidents to leave rather than revolt internally. The 1980 Mariel boatlift saw 125,000 Cubans sail to Florida when protests intensified. This pattern created South Florida's powerful Cuban American community that now shapes US Cuba policy through congressional representation and political influence.
• •Regime Change Obstacles: Unlike Venezuela, Cuba lacks viable opposition leaders or political infrastructure for transition because the monolithic system has suppressed dissent for 67 years. Experts warn that toppling the government without a replacement risks total chaos, violence, and mass migration to Florida. Rubio demands significant economic reforms, but the regime would essentially need to agree to its own demise.
• •Historical Pattern Failure: Every US administration since Eisenhower attempted to force regime change through economic pressure, from the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion to Kennedy's full embargo to Obama's 2015 engagement strategy. Each time, analysts predicted imminent collapse, but the regime survived by opening migration valves, securing new benefactors like the Soviet Union then Venezuela, and making incremental reforms without fundamental change.