The Real Forces Moving Bitcoin Now | Marc Arjoon

What It Covers

Blockworks research analyst Marc Arjoon and host David Kinellis analyze the forces currently driving Bitcoin's price, covering miner economics, three distinct institutional investor types, ETF flow dynamics, the basis trade collapse, and whether Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle retains mechanical relevance in an institutionally dominated market.

Key Questions Answered

• •ETF Investor Segmentation: Bitcoin's ETF investor base splits into three distinct groups: hedge funds running basis trades, attention-driven speculators chasing asymmetric bets, and long-term allocators like pension funds. Only the third group is currently net buying, creating a structural price floor but insufficient momentum for a sharp V-shaped recovery in the near term.
• •Basis Trade Collapse: CME futures open interest has declined 20–29% every month since October, signaling hedge funds unwinding carry trade positions. The spread between spot and futures compressed from double-digit yields to low single digits, matching T-bill rates, making the trade unattractive. Monitoring CME open interest monthly indicates whether this institutional demand source can return.
• •Miner Economics Signal: Bitcoin miners are currently operating at a loss, with hash rate still climbing quarterly while price lags and network transaction fees sit at six-month lows. Miners holding roughly 10% of total supply are under pressure to sell. A hash rate decline would actually relieve selling pressure, making it a constructive signal rather than a bearish one.
• •AI Pivot as Supply Pressure: Major publicly traded miners like Iron are selling Bitcoin holdings to fund gigawatt-scale AI data center buildouts, capitalizing on a structural data center shortage. This creates consistent BTC selling pressure from miners. Tracking which miners are pivoting to AI versus accumulating Bitcoin as treasury assets reveals which entities are contributing to near-term supply overhang.
• •Institutional Blockchain as Bitcoin Gateway: Corporate adoption of permissioned or semi-public blockchains, such as JPMorgan migrating from its private Quorum network to Base, functions as an entry point into the broader crypto ecosystem. Arjoon argues this pattern historically increases institutional comfort with digital assets overall, creating a longer-term tailwind for Bitcoin rather than diverting capital away from it.