Bitcoin’s Cautious Green Start to 2026

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Tuesday, January 6, and today, we are talking about Bitcoin kinda getting off to an okay start this year. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you wanna dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly/breakdownpod. Well, Bitcoin's hot start to $20.26 continued on Monday with another green day. The price is now up more than 7% to begin the year with five green days in a row, which is its longest streak since October. There was a slight retracement overnight, but Bitcoin still hit a three week high of 94,000 on Monday. Analyst Axel Adler junior argued in a research note that Bitcoin is shifting back to risk on mode. He wrote, structural indicators are signaling a synchronized transition from a phase of weakness into a phase of strength. The key question is whether price can establish itself above the upper channel boundary to continue the move. Analyst plan c tweeted, Bitcoin is no longer in a downtrend. There has been a fundamental shift. We've seen a month and a half of sideways price action where Bitcoin is in a clear channel, and most likely it's an accumulation channel. The longer we stay in this sideways channel, the more likely the bottom is in. Once we break through 94,500, we should see a pretty swift move to challenge the all important 100,000. Now not everyone is convinced, with trader Peter DeCarlo writing, here comes the Bitcoin trap I've been waiting for. I've been expecting a squeeze into the 100 k range for a month now. Not as the bottom, but as a way to trap late bulls before a potential flush towards 70 k. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm treating this as a bounce, not a new bull leg. Now for many, the more interesting discussion is what's driving the move. Many are seeing Bitcoin's rebound is driven by geopolitical uncertainty. The situation in Venezuela continues to be very uncertain, and the Trump administration's new Don Rowe doctrine promises even more global instability to come. Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz pointed to shifting prediction market odds commenting, traders are betting that the Panama Canal will be the next target of the Trump administration given the market's dawning understanding of the Don Roe doctrine. Alexander Good tweeted, the next wave of crypto buyers won't be typical retail in my opinion. It'll be comprised of high net worth folks who see the likely collapse of western democracies due to demographics and intellectual and capital flight and can't custody gold and silver like a nation state. Others, though, are taking a less fatalistic view and …