The Pats Grow Up, Nobody Believes in the Jags, the Bears are a Sports Movie, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

What It Covers

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal analyze Week 15 NFL results, focusing on Drake May's comeback performance in New England's upset win over Baltimore, Jacksonville's six-game winning streak, and playoff implications across both conferences heading into the final weeks.

Key Questions Answered

• •Quarterback evaluation framework: Drake May demonstrates elite potential with 31-for-44, 380 yards, two touchdowns in comeback win, but still averages two critical mistakes per game (interceptions, fumbles in traffic) that separate good quarterbacks from elite ones who reduce these to zero or one per game through experience and decision-making refinement.
• •AFC playoff dynamics: Denver (12-3), New England (12-3), and Jacksonville (11-4) create unprecedented parity for the one seed, with Jacksonville winning six straight behind Trevor Lawrence's 16 passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns, demonstrating how second-half surges can overcome poor early-season records in weak divisions like the AFC South.
• •Pittsburgh's sustainable success pattern: The Steelers extend Mike Tomlin's streak to 19 consecutive seasons at .500 or better despite appearing to win games through luck, actually dominating time of possession 34-25 and rushing for 230 yards against Detroit, revealing underlying competence beneath seemingly fortunate outcomes that skeptics dismiss as unsustainable.
• •Injury impact on season length: The 18-game season debate intensifies as Detroit cycles through three centers in one game, Baltimore loses Lamar Jackson, and multiple contenders field depleted rosters, suggesting current schedule length exceeds player durability thresholds and creates competitive imbalances favoring healthier teams rather than better-constructed rosters.
• •Betting line inflation strategy: Week 17 lines show unusual 4-6 point increases across multiple games (Seahawks-Panthers jumps to 7.5, Jaguars-Colts reaches 6.5), indicating sportsbooks anticipate increased holiday betting volume and adjust spreads preemptively to protect against sharp action, requiring bettors to wait for line movement or avoid inflated early numbers.