The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

What It Covers

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal work through all 16 AFC teams' win total over/unders for the 2025 NFL season, debating schedule strength, quarterback situations, defensive metrics, and coaching changes to identify betting value, with Simmons declaring Buffalo his Super Bowl pick and both hosts favoring Denver as the AFC West surprise contender.

Key Questions Answered

• •Buffalo Schedule Advantage: The Bills hold the easiest road schedule in the league by projected win totals, face only two above-.500 road opponents (Houston, Pittsburgh), and are 21-2 at home over three seasons. With Josh Allen at 29 and a reinforced defensive line via Joey Bosa, the one-seed at +250 represents the clearest value bet in the AFC, projecting to 13-14 wins.
• •Denver Broncos Contender Case: Denver projects as the AFC West division winner over Kansas City based on seven defensive contributors earning ranking points, a top-four offensive line, Bo Nix's development, and a 16-1 record against three-team teasers. They went 9-1 in games decided by eight-plus points last year despite finishing 1-6 in one-score games, suggesting positive regression ahead.
• •Bengals Structural Flaw: Cincinnati ranked 31st in defense while facing the weakest quarterback schedule in the league — including Brissett, Rudolph, Levis, Minshew, and Cooper Rush. Their offensive line rates bottom-five in pass-block success rate over four consecutive seasons. With a harder 2025 schedule and new defensive coordinator Al Golden replacing Lou Anarumo, projecting them above nine wins carries significant risk.
• •Coaching Change Valuation: New England's shift from Jerod Mayo to Mike Vrabel, combined with the second-easiest schedule in the league (seven of first nine opponents were sub-.500 in 2024), creates a Washington Commanders 2024 parallel. The Patriots are favored in 11 games, Drake May projects as a legitimate starter, and the over at 8.5 wins with plus-190 for playoff odds carries measurable value.
• •Identifying Regression Candidates: Miami fits the profile for a significant decline: worst secondary in the league, Tua Tagovailoa's injury history forces quick-release offense that neutralizes Tyreek Hill's deep-threat value, most holding penalties in 2024 despite a speed-based scheme, and a schedule that gets progressively harder. The under-five-and-a-half wins at +260 represents a viable alt-line target.
• •AFC Playoff Field Construction: History shows two to three teams with odds between +120 and +250 miss the playoffs annually, while two to three longshots (3-to-1 or worse) make it. Las Vegas at +320 fits the longshot profile: Pete Carroll brings a 17-consecutive-winning-seasons track record, Geno Smith upgrades the quarterback position, Brock Bowers anchors the offense, and the Raiders face the league's easiest pass-offense schedule in 2025.