NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West With Zach Lowe and Joe House

What It Covers

Bill Simmons, Zach Lowe, and Joe House analyze NBA Western Conference win total over/unders for the 2024-25 season, evaluating Oklahoma City's 62.5-win projection, Denver's depth improvements, Minnesota's chemistry, and Dallas's Cooper Flagg impact across fifteen teams.

Key Questions Answered

• •Oklahoma City Thunder projection: The 62.5-win total represents only the eleventh time in thirty years a team received a 60-plus over/under. Historical data shows eight of eleven went under, but OKC's plus-12.7 net rating (best in NBA history) and ability to win without key players suggests 70 wins remains possible at plus-680 odds on FanDuel.
• •Denver roster construction: The Nuggets assembled their deepest bench under Jokic with Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, Jonas Valanciunas, and Tim Hardaway Junior. Each backup replicates starter skillsets—Valanciunas runs post offense, Brown mimics Aaron Gordon, Hardaway substitutes for Johnson—creating seamless rotations that maintain offensive identity during rest periods.
• •Minnesota's late-season surge: The Timberwolves went 20-10 in their final thirty games with a plus-7.3 net rating using essentially their current roster. Expected wins of 54 versus actual 49 indicates poor clutch performance for two months. Alexander Walker's departure creates minutes for Dillingham, Shannon, and Jalen Clark to absorb.
• •Dallas injury mathematics: Anthony Davis has played 65-plus games once since 2017-18, averaging 62, 36, 40, 56, 76, 51, and 42 games over seven seasons. With Kyrie Irving missing approximately two-thirds of the season recovering from injury, the 48.5-win projection requires Davis to exceed his seven-year health baseline significantly.
• •Legacy implications for Jokic: A second championship with four first-team All-NBA selections, four MVPs, and 29-13-8 playoff averages across 80-plus games this decade would place Jokic definitively in the top-ten all-time conversation alongside Bird and Magic. The twenties decade currently belongs exclusively to Jokic with no comparable challenger emerging.