Maye Vs. Stafford, Week 18 Picks & the 21 Best 21st Century Sports Movies With Peter Schrager, Joe House, and Sean Fennessey

What It Covers

Bill Simmons, Peter Schrager, Joe House, and Sean Fennessey debate NFL Week 18 picks, MVP voting between Drake May and Matthew Stafford, coaching vacancies, and rank the 21 best sports movies of the twenty-first century.

Key Questions Answered

• •MVP Voting Mechanics: NFL MVP uses ranked voting where first place equals five points, second equals three points, creating scenarios where a candidate with fewer first-place votes can win through accumulated second-place votes, making the race between Drake May (minus 340 odds) and Matthew Stafford unpredictable despite betting markets.
• •Strength of Schedule Impact: Patriots played the easiest schedule in thirty years while Rams faced the hardest among playoff teams, creating a narrative problem for Drake May's candidacy despite superior EPA metrics and completion percentage over 72 percent. Voters prioritize storylines over algorithms, making schedule strength the seventeenth tiebreaker in close races.
• •Running Back Touch Threshold: Christian McCaffrey exceeds 400 touches this season, approaching the historically dangerous 370-touch threshold that correlates with rapid career decline. Aaron Schatz's research shows running backs rarely maintain performance after crossing this number, raising concerns about McCaffrey's longevity despite his 500-to-1 MVP odds.
• •Coaching Vacancy Strategy: Teams should target younger coordinators two to three years early rather than proven college coaches, as the college-to-NFL transition rarely succeeds. Jesse Minter (Chargers), Jeff Hafley (Packers), and Chris Shula (Rams) emerge as top defensive coordinator candidates, while Atlanta represents the best available job with elite talent on both sides.
• •Week 18 Betting Approach: Avoid games with unclear motivations and focus on teams with definitive playoff stakes. Bengals minus seven and a half against Cleveland's ninth-worst DVOA offense without Harold Fannin represents the strongest play, while Tampa-Carolina and Ravens-Steelers qualify as "I'm so stupid" games where either outcome feels predictable in hindsight.