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The Bill Simmons Podcast

Maye Vs. Stafford, Week 18 Picks & the 21 Best 21st Century Sports Movies With Peter Schrager, Joe House, and Sean Fennessey

150 min episode · 2 min read
·

Episode

150 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Career Growth, Productivity, Health & Wellness

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • MVP Voting Mechanics: NFL MVP uses ranked voting where first place equals five points, second equals three points, creating scenarios where a candidate with fewer first-place votes can win through accumulated second-place votes, making the race between Drake May (minus 340 odds) and Matthew Stafford unpredictable despite betting markets.
  • Strength of Schedule Impact: Patriots played the easiest schedule in thirty years while Rams faced the hardest among playoff teams, creating a narrative problem for Drake May's candidacy despite superior EPA metrics and completion percentage over 72 percent. Voters prioritize storylines over algorithms, making schedule strength the seventeenth tiebreaker in close races.
  • Running Back Touch Threshold: Christian McCaffrey exceeds 400 touches this season, approaching the historically dangerous 370-touch threshold that correlates with rapid career decline. Aaron Schatz's research shows running backs rarely maintain performance after crossing this number, raising concerns about McCaffrey's longevity despite his 500-to-1 MVP odds.
  • Coaching Vacancy Strategy: Teams should target younger coordinators two to three years early rather than proven college coaches, as the college-to-NFL transition rarely succeeds. Jesse Minter (Chargers), Jeff Hafley (Packers), and Chris Shula (Rams) emerge as top defensive coordinator candidates, while Atlanta represents the best available job with elite talent on both sides.
  • Week 18 Betting Approach: Avoid games with unclear motivations and focus on teams with definitive playoff stakes. Bengals minus seven and a half against Cleveland's ninth-worst DVOA offense without Harold Fannin represents the strongest play, while Tampa-Carolina and Ravens-Steelers qualify as "I'm so stupid" games where either outcome feels predictable in hindsight.

What It Covers

Bill Simmons, Peter Schrager, Joe House, and Sean Fennessey debate NFL Week 18 picks, MVP voting between Drake May and Matthew Stafford, coaching vacancies, and rank the 21 best sports movies of the twenty-first century.

Key Questions Answered

  • MVP Voting Mechanics: NFL MVP uses ranked voting where first place equals five points, second equals three points, creating scenarios where a candidate with fewer first-place votes can win through accumulated second-place votes, making the race between Drake May (minus 340 odds) and Matthew Stafford unpredictable despite betting markets.
  • Strength of Schedule Impact: Patriots played the easiest schedule in thirty years while Rams faced the hardest among playoff teams, creating a narrative problem for Drake May's candidacy despite superior EPA metrics and completion percentage over 72 percent. Voters prioritize storylines over algorithms, making schedule strength the seventeenth tiebreaker in close races.
  • Running Back Touch Threshold: Christian McCaffrey exceeds 400 touches this season, approaching the historically dangerous 370-touch threshold that correlates with rapid career decline. Aaron Schatz's research shows running backs rarely maintain performance after crossing this number, raising concerns about McCaffrey's longevity despite his 500-to-1 MVP odds.
  • Coaching Vacancy Strategy: Teams should target younger coordinators two to three years early rather than proven college coaches, as the college-to-NFL transition rarely succeeds. Jesse Minter (Chargers), Jeff Hafley (Packers), and Chris Shula (Rams) emerge as top defensive coordinator candidates, while Atlanta represents the best available job with elite talent on both sides.
  • Week 18 Betting Approach: Avoid games with unclear motivations and focus on teams with definitive playoff stakes. Bengals minus seven and a half against Cleveland's ninth-worst DVOA offense without Harold Fannin represents the strongest play, while Tampa-Carolina and Ravens-Steelers qualify as "I'm so stupid" games where either outcome feels predictable in hindsight.

Notable Moment

Schrager reveals Matthew Stafford dropped from minus 450 MVP favorite to second place after throwing three interceptions in a 21-0 halftime deficit against Atlanta, demonstrating how volatile MVP betting markets react to single prime-time performances despite voters submitting ballots based on full-season evaluation rather than recency bias.

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Episode Transcript

This episode is brought to you by EA Sports FC twenty six. Play your way this holiday season with an overhauled gameplay experience powered by community feedback. Enjoy festive upgrades and ultimate team with winter wild cards. Take on holiday themed challenges and manage your career, like navigating the busy Christmas period and team up with friends and clubs with new tournaments and live events. The club is yours. Give the gift of football with EA sports FC twenty six. Ready to eat for everyone includes in game purchases, includes random items. The bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel sports book. We are also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a rewatchables on Monday. It was my 50 most rewatchable movies of the twenty first century. It was my list. There were a lot of caveats to it, including they were just movies I'd seen the most times because of family wife, because I liked having just a movie on in the background as I was working, whatever it was, it was my most rewatchable movies. Needless to say, people had some opinions on it, but I loved it. Anyway, you can check that out and the rewatchables, on Spotify, on YouTube, wherever you get your pods. We have another episode coming. I think we have two next week. Stay tuned for two. I think we're gonna do a mailbag episode on Monday and then a movie episode on Wednesday. So be ready for that. Coming up on this podcast, we're gonna do week 18 picks, Joe House, Peter Schrager. We're gonna talk about the MVP and a whole bunch of NFL stuff heading into, the long weekend because I think most people have Friday off. And then special segment just recorded today with Sean fantasy. My 21 best sports movies of the twenty first century. This was not a me personally. I was, these are the movies I genuinely feel feel like are the 21 best movies, sports movies of the twenty first century. As you know, I love sports movies, care about them, have been writing about them, my entire career back when I used to write, and have a lot of thoughts. So Sean helped me do we helped me basically, react off the top 21 and then came up with a key save for the list, so stay tuned for that. Anyway, this is a very fun podcast. Hope you had a great New Year's Eve. I did as well. I think I don't know if my wife has showered yet. She's in rough shape. Shout out to her for surviving last night. Anyway, Pearl Jam's coming up in a second. We're gonna take a break. And then Peter Shreager and Joe House. The Bill Simmons podcast is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live. They have your way. Go check out your way. You can build the bet …

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