BakerMania, Kelce’s New Identity, Cross-Off Teams, Guess the Lines, and Parent Corner With Cousin Sal and Jimmy Kimmel

What It Covers

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal analyze NFL Week 6, focusing on Baker Mayfield's MVP candidacy at plus 430 odds, Tampa Bay's five-and-one record despite injuries, Drake May's breakout performance, playoff contenders, and cross-off teams at one-and-five records.

Key Questions Answered

• •Baker Mayfield MVP Case: Mayfield's odds moved from 15-to-1 to plus 430 on FanDuel after leading Tampa Bay to five-and-one despite missing top receivers Evans, Godwin, McMillan, and Bucky Irving. His third-and-14 scramble against San Francisco showcased elite playmaking that separates him from struggling quarterbacks across the league.
• •Drake May Breakthrough: The Patriots rookie became one of three quarterbacks under 23 (with Mahomes and Marino) to throw 200-plus yards with 100-plus passer rating in five straight games. He hit eight consecutive 20-plus yard passes and elevated New England to four-and-two with winnable games against Tennessee and Cleveland upcoming.
• •AFC Playoff Landscape Shift: Baltimore at one-and-five faces elimination despite historically strong Lamar Jackson win percentage. Only three teams since 2012 made playoffs from one-and-five starts. Ravens need five-and-one over next six games to reach nine-and-eight, requiring head-to-head sweeps against Pittsburgh who holds three-and-half game division lead.
• •Indianapolis Colts Fraud Watch: Despite best AFC record at five-and-one, Colts defense allowed 320 yards to third-string Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett and struggled against Denver. Their six wins include beating depleted Dolphins, barely surviving Broncos, and facing weak competition, raising questions about legitimacy heading into tougher schedule stretch.
• •Cross-Off Teams Identified: Jets (zero-and-six), Browns (one-and-five), Titans (one-and-five), Dolphins (one-and-five), and Saints (one-and-five) officially eliminated from realistic playoff contention. Historical data shows one-and-five teams have under five percent playoff probability, with only 2020 Washington making postseason from that deficit in 14-team format era.