Bill Kristol: End the War

What It Covers

Tim Miller and Bill Kristol analyze the U.S. war against Iran two weeks in, examining the collapse of allied support across Europe and Asia, Trump's looming decision between escalation and withdrawal, MAGA fractures over the conflict, and oil price surges from $66 to $101 per barrel threatening recession.

Key Questions Answered

• •Allied Collapse: Every major U.S. ally — Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Norway, Netherlands — has declined Trump's request for Strait of Hormuz assistance. Germany's defense minister, considered the most pro-American in a generation, issued a direct rebuke, signaling damage that analysts describe as potentially irreparable to Western alliance structures.
• •Escalation Fork: Trump faces a binary decision with no good outcome: deploy Marine Expeditionary Forces for a ground operation in Iran, or withdraw and absorb credibility damage. Kristol estimates 60-40 odds favoring withdrawal; analyst Bob Kagan inverts those odds, arguing Trump's maximalist rhetoric makes backing down politically harder with each passing day.
• •Economic Damage Timeline: Goldman Sachs commodities analyst Jeff Curry states no policy tool can stop the oil price ascent. With Brent crude rising from $66 to $101 in one month and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve capable of releasing only 400 million barrels at 2 million barrels per day, supply disruption recovery requires a minimum of 200 days regardless of when hostilities end.
• •Congressional Response: Democrats should adopt a single clear message — "end the war" — rather than leading with procedural complaints about lacking authorization. A potential $100 billion supplemental funding bill is in early talks. The recommended Democratic position: fund troop extraction for 30-60 days only, with no blank check for ground operations absent a submitted plan.
• •MAGA Fracture: A visible split is emerging between pro-war establishment conservatives like Mark Levin and Ben Shapiro versus anti-war figures including Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene. Polling shows younger self-identified MAGA Republicans hold more anti-Israel and antisemitic views than older cohorts, creating a potential 25-30% America First bloc in future Republican primaries.