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The Bill Simmons Podcast

A Crazy 49ers Win, Baltimore’s Alive, Week 18 Stakes, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

111 min episode · 2 min read
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Episode

111 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Career Growth, History

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • 49ers Playoff Path: San Francisco could potentially play all playoff games at home without traveling, including the Super Bowl at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. They defeated Chicago 38-13 despite defensive struggles, with Brock Purdy throwing 303 yards and three touchdowns plus two rushing scores.
  • Caleb Williams Development: The Bears rookie quarterback threw for over 3,700 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions through 17 games, showing the fewest interceptions in any quarterback's first thousand career passes. Chicago played in eight games decided by one score, making them the most entertaining team for television viewers this season.
  • AFC Playoff Seeding Chaos: Buffalo's two-point conversion failure against Philadelphia ended their five-year AFC East title streak. Denver and Seattle could both become number one seeds with rookie and journeyman quarterbacks respectively. Josh Allen may need to win four consecutive road games to reach the Super Bowl as a potential six seed.
  • Baker Mayfield Collapse: Tampa Bay's quarterback has seven losses in eight games after looking like an MVP candidate early in the season. The Buccaneers could win the NFC South at 8-9, which would be Todd Bowles' second division title with a losing record, an unprecedented coaching achievement in NFL history.
  • Betting Line Analysis: Week 18 features unusual spreads due to rest strategies and playoff positioning. Bears are only 1.5-point favorites over Detroit despite fighting for the two seed. Multiple teams including the Rams may rest starters, creating value opportunities for bettors who track injury reports and coaching intentions carefully.

What It Covers

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal analyze Week 17 NFL outcomes, playoff seeding scenarios, and Week 18 implications. They discuss San Francisco's 38-13 win over Chicago, quarterback performances, division races, and predict lines for final regular season games.

Key Questions Answered

  • 49ers Playoff Path: San Francisco could potentially play all playoff games at home without traveling, including the Super Bowl at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. They defeated Chicago 38-13 despite defensive struggles, with Brock Purdy throwing 303 yards and three touchdowns plus two rushing scores.
  • Caleb Williams Development: The Bears rookie quarterback threw for over 3,700 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions through 17 games, showing the fewest interceptions in any quarterback's first thousand career passes. Chicago played in eight games decided by one score, making them the most entertaining team for television viewers this season.
  • AFC Playoff Seeding Chaos: Buffalo's two-point conversion failure against Philadelphia ended their five-year AFC East title streak. Denver and Seattle could both become number one seeds with rookie and journeyman quarterbacks respectively. Josh Allen may need to win four consecutive road games to reach the Super Bowl as a potential six seed.
  • Baker Mayfield Collapse: Tampa Bay's quarterback has seven losses in eight games after looking like an MVP candidate early in the season. The Buccaneers could win the NFC South at 8-9, which would be Todd Bowles' second division title with a losing record, an unprecedented coaching achievement in NFL history.
  • Betting Line Analysis: Week 18 features unusual spreads due to rest strategies and playoff positioning. Bears are only 1.5-point favorites over Detroit despite fighting for the two seed. Multiple teams including the Rams may rest starters, creating value opportunities for bettors who track injury reports and coaching intentions carefully.

Notable Moment

Josh Allen missed a wide-open receiver on the two-point conversion attempt that would have beaten Philadelphia in overtime. Multiple analysts noted that 90 out of 100 times the league's presumed best quarterback makes that throw, but the rain, his injured foot, and off-balance positioning contributed to the miss that preserved Buffalo's season-long struggles.

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Episode Transcript

This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. While the NBA season is heating up, the best moments are served cold, just like a refreshing Michelob Ultra superior light beer with only 95 calories. Nothing better than enjoying the games with a crisp, cold beard in your hand and even better to see them in person. Luckily for you, that's where Michelob Ultra comes in, getting you closer than ever with the chance to see all the action in person with courtside tickets to NBA games and more Michelob Ultra superiors worth playing for Enter now at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra courtside twenty five to twenty six. No purchase necessary. Open to US residents '21 plus begins on 10/01/2025 ends on 06/30/2026. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at miglowvoucher.com/courtside for free entry entry details, prizes, and details. The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network where I have a new rewatch most coming for you on Monday night. It is a special episode. You're probably not gonna expect what it is. Parts of it will, probably confuse you, might make you mad. You're not gonna know where it's going. That's all I'm gonna say, but it's coming on, Monday night. And if you like the podcast, then if you've listened to at least a few episodes over the year, I'm pretty confident you will enjoy this episode. So that is coming on the rewatchables on Monday, and then we're moving into, our big 2026 slate, which I was actually one of the things I was planning out over, the little mini break there, trying to figure out the schedule for the first few months. So stay tuned on that one. Coming up on this podcast, cousin Salas here as always, we taped recorded. I always say tape like it's 1990. We recorded like it was, like we usually do right after the game, except we had to wait a couple of minutes because they were trying to release where the playoff matchups were. So we have that at the top. We have all the playoff seedings, all the implications for week 18, all of our reactions to a crazy week of football, week 17, which went, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday. Yeah. And now Monday. So, the NFL, they just they know how to do it with us. We have big action packed parent corner here as well. So it's all coming up next. We're gonna take a break. Pearl Jam, then cousin Sal and I break it down week 17. Looking forward to week 18 next. This episode of the bill Simmons podcast is presented by state farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having state farm. It's like expecting a linebacker on the football field, but getting a line cook. Sure. They both can handle the pressure when it starts heating up, but only one is stopping a touchdown. You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team. …

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