A Classic Josh-Vs.-Lamar Battle, the Week 1 Panic Meter, Guess the Lines and Parent Corner With Cousin Sal

What It Covers

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal analyze NFL Week 1 results, focusing on the Bills' dramatic comeback against Ravens, quarterback performances from Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, early season panic rankings for struggling teams, and predictions for Week 2 matchups.

Key Questions Answered

• •Ravens Late-Game Collapse: Baltimore dominated Buffalo for three quarters with 497 yards offense but lost 35-10 fourth quarter lead through conservative play-calling on final drives, refusing to use Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on crucial third down possessions, repeating their pattern of regular season collapses in high-leverage moments.
• •Offensive Line Week 1 Impact: Multiple teams lost key offensive linemen yet maintained production—Jets scored without Tyron Smith, Falcons moved ball without right tackle, Chargers succeeded with Joe Alt replacing Rashawn Slater—suggesting Week 1 offensive line injuries carry less predictive weight than conventional analysis suggests for season-long performance projections.
• •Kick Return Rule Changes: New kickoff rules significantly altered field position dynamics across Week 1, with teams consistently starting drives between the 30-45 yard line instead of traditional 22-24 yard touchbacks, creating more explosive plays and impacting game flow, clock management, and special teams strategy for the entire season.
• •Underdog Betting Patterns: Week 1 produced 11-1 under results before primetime, with only two games exceeding totals—both spectacularly over. This pattern reflects offensive lines requiring time to gel, suggesting early season under betting provides value until approximately Week 3 when offensive coordination improves league-wide.
• •AFC Hierarchy Shift: Kansas City sits last in AFC West at plus-170 division odds (previously minus-110), their highest underdog position since acquiring Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson demonstrate superior week-to-week performance over Mahomes, who maintains three Super Bowl rings but lacks explosive offensive weapons for 2025 season dominance.