The Long Game

November 26, 2025

58 min episode · 2 min read

Jake Sullivan,John Feiner

Episode

58 min

Read time

2 min

AI-Generated Summary

Published Dec 22, 2025

Key Takeaways

✓Saudi Arabia negotiations: MBS secured tens of thousands of AI chips and F-35 fighter jets but received no formal security treaty guarantee, which requires Senate ratification and likely depends on achieving normalization with Israel first.
✓Ukraine corruption crisis: Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities report $100 million embezzled from energy grid defense funds meant to protect civilians from Russian strikes during winter, weakening President Zelensky's position as Trump administration pushes unfavorable peace terms.
✓Immigration enforcement costs: Trump administration reassigned 6,700 federal employees including 3,000 FBI agents from counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and sanctions enforcement to immigration duties, creating 40% vacancy rates at critical agencies like CISA and reducing weapons and child exploitation prosecutions.
✓Iran sanctions collapse: Iranian crude oil exports reached 2.2 million barrels daily in October 2024, matching 2018 levels when the nuclear deal allowed exports, partly because personnel enforcing sanctions were reassigned to immigration enforcement operations.

What It Covers

Jake Sullivan and John Feiner analyze Mohammed bin Salman's White House visit, Ukraine's corruption scandal intersecting with Trump's peace proposal, and the national security impact of reassigning thousands of federal agents to immigration enforcement duties.

Key Questions Answered

•Saudi Arabia negotiations: MBS secured tens of thousands of AI chips and F-35 fighter jets but received no formal security treaty guarantee, which requires Senate ratification and likely depends on achieving normalization with Israel first.
•Ukraine corruption crisis: Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities report $100 million embezzled from energy grid defense funds meant to protect civilians from Russian strikes during winter, weakening President Zelensky's position as Trump administration pushes unfavorable peace terms.
•Immigration enforcement costs: Trump administration reassigned 6,700 federal employees including 3,000 FBI agents from counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and sanctions enforcement to immigration duties, creating 40% vacancy rates at critical agencies like CISA and reducing weapons and child exploitation prosecutions.
•Iran sanctions collapse: Iranian crude oil exports reached 2.2 million barrels daily in October 2024, matching 2018 levels when the nuclear deal allowed exports, partly because personnel enforcing sanctions were reassigned to immigration enforcement operations.

Notable Moment

Trump blamed journalist Jamal Khashoggi for his own murder during the Oval Office meeting with MBS, stating the victim was extremely controversial and many people disliked him, while MBS looked down at his hands hoping the exchange would end.

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