Is Minnesota Trump’s Waterloo? (with Ed Luce)

What It Covers

Preet Bharara and Financial Times columnist Ed Luce examine the fatal shooting of Alex Preddy by ICE agents in Minneapolis, analyzing whether this represents an inflection point for the Trump administration. They discuss institutional capitulation, the disconnect between video evidence and official narratives, and constitutional concerns about a leaked ICE memo claiming warrantless home entry authority.

Key Questions Answered

• •Visual Evidence Impact: Approximately 70-75% of Americans viewed videos of both the Renee Goode and Alex Preddy shootings, according to Economist YouGov polling. This viewership exceeds Super Bowl audiences and most blockbuster movies. The widespread visual documentation creates accountability pressure that Trump cannot overwhelm through narrative control, unlike text-based controversies that remain confined to news-following audiences.
• •ICE Memo Constitutional Crisis: A previously undisclosed May 12, 2025 ICE memo signed by acting director Todd Lyons claims agents can forcibly enter homes using administrative warrants without judicial approval. This breaks from decades of Fourth Amendment precedent requiring judicial warrants for home entry. Federal courts have already begun pushback, with one judge ruling ICE violated Fourth Amendment rights in the Garrison Gibson case involving battering ram entry.
• •Collective Action Problem: Business leaders, Fortune 500 companies, and industry groups privately express alarm about Trump policies but refuse public opposition due to fear of individual targeting. The solution requires collective action through industry bodies like Chambers of Commerce, where Trump cannot single out individual CEOs for regulatory punishment. Minnesota Chamber of Commerce demonstrated this approach by condemning the Preddy shooting collectively.
• •Political Miscalculation Pattern: Trump administration transformed immigration enforcement from a winning issue into a liability by using paramilitary tactics against sympathetic Americans. Alex Preddy was a Veterans Affairs nurse acting as a Good Samaritan when killed. Polling shows Trump support on immigration falling sharply among Republicans. The administration prioritized ideological mission over maintaining political advantage on their strongest issue.
• •Institutional Cowardice Consequences: Former Biden administration officials report employers saying they would love to hire them but it is not worth the risk of Trump retaliation. Law firms and corporations are refusing qualified candidates purely due to political fear. This creates a chilling effect where talented professionals face employment blacklisting based on prior government service, fundamentally altering professional norms and career mobility.
• •Market Discipline Mechanism: Gold prices jumped 8% in one week, the highest weekly increase since the 2008 financial meltdown, signaling investor flight from dollar assets. Bond markets forced Trump to retreat on tariff threats internationally. Similarly, overwhelming public opinion on the Minnesota shootings, reflected across New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and New York Post editorial boards, creates domestic pressure Trump cannot ignore.