Should You Invest When the Market Feels Too High? SB1812

What It Covers

A 2016 roundtable replay featuring Len Penzo, Paula Pant, and Greg McFarland examines whether to invest when markets feel overvalued. The SPY ETF traded at $190 then versus nearly $700 today, demonstrating that fears about sky-high markets rarely justify sitting out long-term investing.

Key Questions Answered

• •Market timing cost: The SPY ETF tracking the S&P 500 traded at $190 per share in 2016 when panelists debated whether markets were too high. That same fund trades near $700 today, excluding reinvested dividends. Investors who waited for a "safer" entry point missed roughly a 270% gain over ten years.
• •Exit strategy framework: Before buying any individual stock, define your exit conditions in advance — for example, sell if the position drops 10–15% or gains 20–50%, regardless of news or emotion. Pre-committing to these thresholds removes the psychological difficulty of deciding in real time whether a holding is a loser or winner.
• •Defining a losing stock: Indicators that a stock is a permanent loser include consecutive quarters of negative returns, no viable path to profitability, no government support, and leadership opacity — such as a company that refuses to disclose its CEO's name. Duration of losses matters: Amazon lost money for years but showed sustained revenue growth and market dominance.
• •Media and market noise: Financial television reports daily market moves of 0.1–0.2% as headline news, which has no actionable relevance for long-term investors. Checking portfolio performance monthly rather than daily prevents reactionary decisions. Tips broadcast on widely available cable channels are already priced in by the time retail investors hear them.
• •Cash versus credit strategy: Using rewards credit cards for most purchases captures airline miles and provides merchant dispute protection unavailable with cash. Carrying small denominations of cash — ones and fives — specifically for tipping handles situations where cards are impractical. When dining in large groups, calculating and paying your exact share in cash prevents subsidizing others' alcohol or appetizers.