Appendix 5- The Triggers

Hello, and welcome to Revolutions. Appendix five, the triggers. So far in the appendices, we've taken our once successful sovereign regimes to the precipice of revolution. About ten, fifteen, maybe twenty odd years before the revolution, destabilizing this equilibrium enters the picture caused by an increasing inability of the sovereign to balance competing political interests in the ruling class or manage the prevailing and ever changing socioeconomic conditions. Then, two to three years or so before the revolution breaks out, this unstable system gets hit with a shock that hardens political divisions, draws sharp battle lines, and makes peaceful reconciliation increasingly impossible. This was especially true for those challenging the regime, not just because they were afraid of what might happen if they back down, but because they now saw the sovereign as weak, incompetent, and ineffective. They saw how the sovereign behaved to all these crises and shocks and deemed them uniquely vulnerable to attack. So failing to press their advantage would be an unforgivably missed opportunity. And so everyone pushed on towards the precipice. And today, we are gonna talk about the moment everyone plunges over the edge together. The thing that takes all of this from potential revolutionary energy to kinetic revolutionary energy, and that is the triggers. Now, before we get into this, let's remind ourselves that nothing we have talked about so far guarantees our revolution. In fact, even at this late hour, no revolution necessarily follows from any of the conditions we have described so far. A sovereign can manage its political equilibrium in perpetuity. If disequilibrium enters the picture, the sovereign can regain its footing. It can change, adapt, and reform. Even after the shock to the system has come around, there's no guarantee that the crisis will meet a dramatic revolutionary trigger. More than anything else, revolutions are rare. They're so rare. They're super rare. And that's partly why they're so fascinating, because they are so uncommon. The uncommon draws our attention. The commonplace does not. So most of the time, the volcano gurgles and shakes, but ultimately does not erupt. The logic is never if there is potential revolutionary energy, then there will ultimately be kinetic revolutionary energy. We must always, always, always keep this in mind. If you're a gambler and you would like to make a fortune, always bet against revolution. Besides, if you lose that bet and a revolution happens, maybe the revolution will wipe out all your debts. So either way, you can't lose. But, obviously, we are here talking about the times revolutions did break out, when all the conditions were ripe and a trigger kicked that energy from potential to kinetic. So I want to start today by running quickly through the trigger points as I see them through all of our various revolutions and then offer some thoughts on what we see. Now what's interesting about a revolutionary trigger is that it's simultaneously only obvious in retrospect because at the time it's nearly impossible …