Planet Money vs. the NBA’s tanking problem

What It Covers

Planet Money examines the NBA's tanking problem — where teams deliberately lose games to secure better draft picks — and evaluates three structural reforms: the Draft Wheel, the Gold Plan (already used by the PWHL), and eliminating the draft entirely (already adopted by the NWSL in 2024).

Key Questions Answered

• •Incentive Architecture: Every ruleset creates exploitable incentives. The NBA's reverse-order draft has triggered a decades-long cat-and-mouse cycle since 1984, when Houston deliberately lost 14 of their last 17 games to secure the first overall pick and draft Hakeem Olajuwon. Changing behavior requires changing the underlying rules, not issuing warnings.
• •Draft Wheel Mechanics: The Draft Wheel assigns each of 30 teams a predetermined pick position that rotates annually across all 30 slots over 30 years. Every team is mathematically guaranteed one top-six pick per five-year cycle, eliminating record-based incentives entirely — but small-market teams resist it, fearing loss of their primary superstar-acquisition pathway.
• •Gold Plan Design: The PWHL's Gold Plan flips incentives post-elimination: once a team is mathematically out of playoff contention, wins accumulate toward earning the top draft pick instead of losses. This converts meaningless late-season games into high-stakes competition, preserving fan engagement while still rewarding struggling franchises with draft upside.
• •Lottery Odds History: The NBA has repeatedly adjusted lottery odds — worst-team probability for the first pick dropped from 25% to 14% in 2019, and lottery picks expanded from three to four — yet tanking persists because even 14% odds on a potentially billion-dollar franchise-altering player still outweighs a competitive regular season for many front offices.
• •Draftless League Model: The NWSL eliminated its draft entirely in 2024, allowing players to negotiate directly with teams. This removes all losing-based incentives and grants player autonomy, but concentrates talent toward wealthiest, most resource-rich franchises. Leagues considering this model must weigh competitive balance risks against the complete elimination of tanking behavior.