Can the Trump administration make college cheaper?

What It Covers

The Trump Department of Education caps federal graduate student loans at roughly $21,000 per year starting July 1, 2025, reversing the unlimited Grad PLUS program created in 2006. The policy tests the decades-old "Bennett hypothesis" — that restricting student aid forces universities to lower tuition — against $1.7 trillion in total student loan debt.

Key Questions Answered

• •The Bennett Hypothesis: Economist William Bennett first argued in a 1987 New York Times op-ed that federal student aid enables colleges to raise tuition freely. The theory was untestable until 2006, when the Grad PLUS unlimited loan program launched. That program now provides the data economists use to evaluate whether restricting loans actually reduces what universities charge students.
• •Undergraduate vs. Graduate Cost Reality: Net undergraduate tuition has remained essentially flat for roughly ten years — sticker prices rise, but financial aid offsets increases. Graduate school is where net tuition has genuinely ballooned. A disproportionate share of the $1.7 trillion federal loan portfolio is graduate debt held by fewer borrowers carrying much larger individual balances than undergraduates.
• •Texas Study Evidence: A University of Texas study found that when Grad PLUS launched in 2006, Texas graduate schools raised prices by 64 cents for every additional dollar students could borrow — a meaningful, causal relationship. This research is the primary evidence Republicans cite to justify the new loan caps, though its findings apply specifically to Texas programs, not nationally.
• •Conflicting National Evidence: University of Tennessee professor Robert Kelchen, studying business, medical, and law programs nationally, found no consistent evidence linking loan availability to tuition increases. Medical programs cost schools up to $1 million per graduate to operate, leaving little margin to cut prices even if loan caps reduce demand — meaning caps may not produce lower tuition in expensive, resource-intensive fields.
• •Enrollment Drop Risk: University of Delaware professor Dominique Baker identifies the most consistent research finding: when financial aid is capped without replacement grants or scholarships, student enrollment declines. Lower-income graduate students face additional barriers because the private student loan market contracted sharply after 2006, when unlimited federal loans made private lending largely unnecessary, leaving fewer alternatives for borrowers with limited credit history.