Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

What It Covers

Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway analyze three converging crises: the Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling striking down Trump's emergency tariffs, Trump's threat against Netflix board member Susan Rice, and the Paramount-Warner Brothers acquisition battle, while previewing Trump's State of the Union address with a 60% disapproval rating.

Key Questions Answered

• •Tariff Inconsistency Cost: The most damaging element of Trump's trade policy is not the tariffs themselves but the unpredictability. No small business can plan supply chains or pricing when tariff status shifts daily. Markets reflected this muted response even after the Supreme Court ruling, with tariff claims trading at only 20-40 cents on the dollar due to administrative uncertainty around $175 billion in potential refunds.
• •SaaS Valuation Opportunity: Traditional SaaS companies—Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, Figma—have dropped 40-70% on AI disruption fears despite zero evidence of actual revenue decline. These companies continue growing at double digits while trading at 10-12x free cash flow multiples. Their deep client integration, switching costs, and non-technical cost structures (80% marketing, events, client service) make them far more resilient than current valuations suggest.
• •AI Activist Investing: Using AI tools, Scott Galloway drafted shareholder nomination filings for a single-class share company in roughly seven minutes—work that previously required $150,000-$250,000 in legal fees and a 13-D filing. Purchasing one share enables formal director nomination challenges, dramatically lowering the barrier for economic activism targeting corporate board members of politically aligned companies.
• •M&A Leverage Dynamics: Paramount CEO David Zaslav has successfully played Netflix and the Ellison family against each other, driving both parties toward overpaying for Warner Brothers at approximately $82 billion. Galloway argues Netflix stock would rise 10-20% if they lose the bid, since that capital deployed into content, new verticals, and subscription tiers generates superior returns compared to acquiring a structurally declining legacy media asset.
• •Tourism vs. Manufacturing Trade-off: Trump's tariff and border policies are materially damaging US tourism, which employs 12 million Americans, while failing to revive manufacturing, which employs 11 million. Canadian and European travelers are actively redirecting vacation spending away from US destinations like Las Vegas and Disney parks. This represents a concrete, measurable economic harm that exceeds any manufacturing gains achieved so far under current trade policy.
• •Tech Boycott Momentum Metrics: The Resist/Unsubscribe campaign generated website traffic equivalent to $5-9 million in paid advertising without spending anything, demonstrating podcast and social media reach as a measurable economic lever. Galloway identifies the next phase requires consolidating multiple global movements, targeting fewer platforms simultaneously, and adding dedicated full-time organizational infrastructure to convert consumer awareness into sustained board-level corporate pressure.