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AI Spending Spree, Crypto Winter, and Kara's Message to Jeff Bezos

71 min episode · 3 min read

Episode

71 min

Read time

3 min

Topics

Investing, Fundraising & VC, Leadership

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • AI Capital Expenditure Scale: Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft plan to spend a combined $660 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, representing a 60% increase from 2024. This exceeds three times the global pharmaceutical industry's R&D budget and surpasses the cost of building the US interstate highway system, equivalent to $2 billion daily spending on AI development and infrastructure.
  • Corporate Tax Reduction Impact: Amazon's corporate tax bill dropped from $9 billion to $1.2 billion under Trump's new tax law despite profits jumping 45%, demonstrating how capital expenditure expensing provisions dramatically reduce tax obligations. This pattern repeats across major tech companies, with corporate taxes as percentage of GDP reaching historic lows while corporate profits reach historic highs as GDP percentage.
  • Subscription Cancellation Economics: Each subscription cancellation generates approximately $10,000 in market cap reduction for big tech platforms, with subscription revenues now representing 40% of S&P 500 value. The Resist and Unsubscribe campaign demonstrates that targeting subscription revenue creates measurable market pressure, with conversion rates of 2-4% translating to roughly 10,000 daily unsubscribes across multiple platforms.
  • AI Investment Timing Indicator: When tech advertising exceeds 25% of Super Bowl commercials, it historically signals market corrections. This occurred in 2000 with dotcom companies and 2022 with crypto firms before major crashes. In 2025, 15 of 66 Super Bowl ads were AI-related, suggesting potential AI market correction based on historical patterns of excessive advertising spend preceding downturns.
  • Media Consolidation Strategy: The Washington Post requires either prepackaged bankruptcy to clear unsustainable cost structures or acquisition by established media infrastructure like Bloomberg, New York Times, or Wall Street Journal. The brand retains value but needs 40-60% staff reduction and elimination of administrative overhead to achieve economic viability, with current ownership demonstrating incompetence in media operations.

What It Covers

Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway examine massive AI infrastructure spending by tech giants totaling $660 billion, cryptocurrency's steep decline with Bitcoin down 43% from peak, Scott's "Resist and Unsubscribe" campaign generating 100,000 daily site visits, and Jeff Bezos's mismanagement of The Washington Post following layoffs and CEO departure.

Key Questions Answered

  • AI Capital Expenditure Scale: Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft plan to spend a combined $660 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, representing a 60% increase from 2024. This exceeds three times the global pharmaceutical industry's R&D budget and surpasses the cost of building the US interstate highway system, equivalent to $2 billion daily spending on AI development and infrastructure.
  • Corporate Tax Reduction Impact: Amazon's corporate tax bill dropped from $9 billion to $1.2 billion under Trump's new tax law despite profits jumping 45%, demonstrating how capital expenditure expensing provisions dramatically reduce tax obligations. This pattern repeats across major tech companies, with corporate taxes as percentage of GDP reaching historic lows while corporate profits reach historic highs as GDP percentage.
  • Subscription Cancellation Economics: Each subscription cancellation generates approximately $10,000 in market cap reduction for big tech platforms, with subscription revenues now representing 40% of S&P 500 value. The Resist and Unsubscribe campaign demonstrates that targeting subscription revenue creates measurable market pressure, with conversion rates of 2-4% translating to roughly 10,000 daily unsubscribes across multiple platforms.
  • AI Investment Timing Indicator: When tech advertising exceeds 25% of Super Bowl commercials, it historically signals market corrections. This occurred in 2000 with dotcom companies and 2022 with crypto firms before major crashes. In 2025, 15 of 66 Super Bowl ads were AI-related, suggesting potential AI market correction based on historical patterns of excessive advertising spend preceding downturns.
  • Media Consolidation Strategy: The Washington Post requires either prepackaged bankruptcy to clear unsustainable cost structures or acquisition by established media infrastructure like Bloomberg, New York Times, or Wall Street Journal. The brand retains value but needs 40-60% staff reduction and elimination of administrative overhead to achieve economic viability, with current ownership demonstrating incompetence in media operations.
  • Prediction Market Disruption: Kalshi recorded 4 million downloads in January 2025, up from under 2 million in December 2024, while traditional gambling apps DraftKings and FanDuel gained only 100,000 downloads combined. Prediction markets are transferring significant market capitalization from gaming companies, with Flutter Entertainment earnings estimates cut 50% and DraftKings down 29% as speculation markets capture gambling market share.

Notable Moment

Scott Galloway compared current political dynamics to late-stage Weimar Republic, specifically citing Trump's comparison of the Obamas to animals as dangerous dehumanization rhetoric. He argues that when democratically elected leaders normalize referring to political opponents as vermin or animals, it creates conditions similar to 1930s Germany, requiring immediate pushback from Republican leadership to prevent normalization of such language.

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Episode Transcript

This episode is brought to you by On Investing, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. I'm Cathy Jones, Schwab's chief fixed income strategist. And I'm Liz Ann Sonder, Schwab's chief investment strategist. Between us, we have decades of experience studying the indicators that drive the economy and how they can have a direct impact on your investments. We know that investors have a lot of questions about the markets and the economy, and we're here to help. So download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com/oninvesting or wherever you get your podcasts. Support for the show comes from CoreWeave. Everywhere you look, AI is expanding what we thought was possible. And at the center of it all is CoreWeave, medical research and diagnosis, education, complex visual effects for movies, science and technology breakthroughs. Corweave powers AI pioneers around the world with purpose built tech, building what's never been built before. Corweave cloud is the essential cloud for AI, ready for anything, ready for AI. To learn more about how Corweave powers the world's best AI, go to corwave.com/ ready for anything. This episode is brought to you by On Investing, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. I'm Cathy Jones, Schwab's chief fixed income strategist. And I'm Lizanne Saunders, Schwab's chief investment strategist. Between us, we have decades of experience studying the indicators that drive the economy and how they can have a direct impact on your investments. We know that investors have a lot of questions about the markets and the economy, and we're here to help. So download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com/oninvesting or wherever you get your podcasts. Jeff Bezos, let me speak to you directly. I don't like you. You don't like me. So what? Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Go Seahawks. You like the Seahawks? I like Jody Allen, the owner. Sister of Paul Allen. I I know her a tiny bit. I knew Paul, her brother who died, who was one of the Microsoft founders. Just Oh, really? Cool lady. And, I can't stand Robert Kraft. I think he's a terrible person. I the whole Katz family was for, the Patriots. It's only because they live there. Nobody likes Robert Kraft. So I was happy about that. I like the Seahawks. Well, I'm happy you're happy. The Yeah. The the thing that summarized how I feel about it was the Elmo account Mhmm. Said, I hope both teams have a really fun time. That's about how much I care about the Super Bowl. And the other one was, Elmo said, he's not a bad bunny. He's a good bunny. He's a good bunny. That's that's all. Lost his fucking mind. We'll get to that. Oh my god. But first, let's have a little bit of, resist and unsubscribe. How's it going, Scott? You everywhere. You're like you are like the village whores, they say. But go …

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Tools

  • Kalshi recorded 4 million downloads in January 2025, up from under 2 million in December 2024, while traditional gambling apps DraftKings and FanDuel gained only 100,000 downloads combined. Prediction markets are transferring significant market capitalization from gaming companies.
  • Kalshi recorded 4 million downloads in January 2025, up from under 2 million in December 2024, while traditional gambling apps DraftKings and FanDuel gained only 100,000 downloads combined.
  • Kalshi recorded 4 million downloads in January 2025, up from under 2 million in December 2024, while traditional gambling apps DraftKings and FanDuel gained only 100,000 downloads combined.

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