The Utilities Analyst Who Says the Data Center Demand Story Doesn't Add Up

What It Covers

Andy Devries, utilities analyst at Credit Science, challenges the data center energy demand narrative with simple math: utilities have committed to 110 gigawatts of new capacity, but third-party forecasts only project 50 gigawatts of additional demand by 2030. This potential oversupply threatens utility shareholders and ratepayers.

Key Questions Answered

• •Supply-Demand Mismatch: Data centers currently consume 45 gigawatts and forecasts predict 95 gigawatts by 2030, requiring 50 gigawatts of new capacity. However, utilities have already committed to 140 gigawatts of firm projects (110 gigawatts after PUE adjustment), creating potential massive oversupply by decade's end. This disconnect suggests utilities may be overbuilding infrastructure based on inflated demand projections.
• •Existing Grid Capacity: Texas operates an 87 gigawatt peak market that could immediately absorb 10 gigawatts of new data center load (equivalent to every NVIDIA chip produced in one year) using existing infrastructure for all but 40-50 hours annually. Ramping up underutilized coal and gas plants proves more economical than spending billions connecting distant renewable farms for rare peak demand periods.
• •Ratepayer Protection Models: Northern Indiana Public Service established the gold standard by creating a separate generation company for Amazon data centers that returns one billion dollars over fifteen years to residential customers, approximately 67 million dollars annually. This structure prevents ratepayers from subsidizing tech giants while utilities still benefit from earnings growth, though many jurisdictions lack similar protections.
• •Private Credit Pricing Signals: Meta paid 220 basis points over treasuries for 25 billion dollars in off-balance-sheet data center financing through PIMCO, immediately trading at 140 basis points and generating two billion dollars profit. Meanwhile, CoreWeave bonds yield 10 percent to 2030, suggesting bond markets price significant default risk despite 50 billion dollar market capitalization, reflecting skepticism about 2030 oversupply scenarios.
• •Power Construction Economics: New combined-cycle gas plants cost 3,000 dollars per kilowatt to build (up from 1,200 dollars a decade ago), but data centers themselves cost 40,000 dollars per kilowatt. Big tech pays 95 dollars per megawatt hour for power versus 55-60 dollar forward curves, making the three dollar per kilowatt premium for dedicated generation economically trivial relative to total data center investment.