What are the key takeaways from this Odd Lots episode?

Key insights include: **Tungsten as war predictor:** Tungsten investment has functioned as a century-long conflict prediction market. The Dolphin Mine in Tasmania opened in 1917, 1938, and during Korea and Vietnam, closing each time peace returned. Its current restart — after sitting flooded since 1990 — follows China imposing export controls and global military demand surging from drone and cruise missile production.; **China's supply dominance:** China produces 80% of global tungsten, with Russia and North Korea supplying another 5%, leaving only 15% for the rest of the world. The Dolphin Mine, if fully operational, would supply roughly 2.5% of global output — approximately one-sixth of the entire non-China, non-adversary market — for a total investment of just $77 million Australian dollars over 20 years.; **No futures market creates financing trap:** Tungsten has no exchange-traded futures market, meaning miners cannot hedge revenues against a forward curve. Prices can swing between $300 and $3,000 per dry metric ton unit — a tenfold range — making bank financing nearly impossible. Investors must rely on equity, equipment-for-equity swaps, and government stakes rather than conventional project finance structures.

What did David Fickling discuss on Odd Lots?

Bloomberg's Odd Lots examines tungsten — a dense, high-melting-point metal — as a geopolitical warning signal. China controls 80% of global supply, export controls are already active, and a shuttered Tasmanian mine is restarting after 35 years, mirroring patterns seen before every major 20th-century conflict. Key topics include: **Tungsten as war predictor:** Tungsten investment has functioned as a century-long conflict prediction market. The Dolphin Mine in Tasmania opened in 1917, 1938, and during Korea and Vietnam, closing each time peace returned. Its current restart — after sitting flooded since 1990 — follows China imposing export controls and global military demand surging from drone and cruise missile production.; **China's supply dominance:** China produces 80% of global tungsten, with Russia and North Korea supplying another 5%, leaving only 15% for the rest of the world. The Dolphin Mine, if fully operational, would supply roughly 2.5% of global output — approximately one-sixth of the entire non-China, non-adversary market — for a total investment of just $77 million Australian dollars over 20 years..

How long is this episode of Odd Lots?

This episode is 44 minutes long. SignalCast provides an AI-generated summary so you can get the key insights in about 3 minutes.

Odd Lots

The Tungsten Market Is Warning of an Upcoming War

August 3, 2026

44 min episode · 2 min read

David Fickling

Episode

44 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Sales & Revenue, Product & Tech Trends

AI-Generated Summary

Published Aug 3, 2026

Key Takeaways

✓Tungsten as war predictor: Tungsten investment has functioned as a century-long conflict prediction market. The Dolphin Mine in Tasmania opened in 1917, 1938, and during Korea and Vietnam, closing each time peace returned. Its current restart — after sitting flooded since 1990 — follows China imposing export controls and global military demand surging from drone and cruise missile production.
✓China's supply dominance: China produces 80% of global tungsten, with Russia and North Korea supplying another 5%, leaving only 15% for the rest of the world. The Dolphin Mine, if fully operational, would supply roughly 2.5% of global output — approximately one-sixth of the entire non-China, non-adversary market — for a total investment of just $77 million Australian dollars over 20 years.
✓No futures market creates financing trap: Tungsten has no exchange-traded futures market, meaning miners cannot hedge revenues against a forward curve. Prices can swing between $300 and $3,000 per dry metric ton unit — a tenfold range — making bank financing nearly impossible. Investors must rely on equity, equipment-for-equity swaps, and government stakes rather than conventional project finance structures.
✓Floor price mechanism as policy solution: To build Western tungsten supply, governments need to offer medium-term price floors — three to five years minimum — so miners can borrow against guaranteed revenue. Without this, private capital stays away because Chinese producers can flood the market at any time, instantly bankrupting higher-cost Western operations, as happened repeatedly after World War One and the Cold War.
✓Strategic minerals require narrow targeting: The US Project Vault critical minerals reserve risks becoming a price-support mechanism for common commodities like copper, nickel, and aluminum rather than genuinely scarce strategic inputs. Effective policy should concentrate on a short list — tungsten, rare earths, gallium, germanium — where China holds near-monopoly control and substitution is technically difficult within relevant military and industrial timeframes.

What It Covers

Bloomberg's Odd Lots examines tungsten — a dense, high-melting-point metal — as a geopolitical warning signal. China controls 80% of global supply, export controls are already active, and a shuttered Tasmanian mine is restarting after 35 years, mirroring patterns seen before every major 20th-century conflict.

Key Questions Answered

•Tungsten as war predictor: Tungsten investment has functioned as a century-long conflict prediction market. The Dolphin Mine in Tasmania opened in 1917, 1938, and during Korea and Vietnam, closing each time peace returned. Its current restart — after sitting flooded since 1990 — follows China imposing export controls and global military demand surging from drone and cruise missile production.
•China's supply dominance: China produces 80% of global tungsten, with Russia and North Korea supplying another 5%, leaving only 15% for the rest of the world. The Dolphin Mine, if fully operational, would supply roughly 2.5% of global output — approximately one-sixth of the entire non-China, non-adversary market — for a total investment of just $77 million Australian dollars over 20 years.
•No futures market creates financing trap: Tungsten has no exchange-traded futures market, meaning miners cannot hedge revenues against a forward curve. Prices can swing between $300 and $3,000 per dry metric ton unit — a tenfold range — making bank financing nearly impossible. Investors must rely on equity, equipment-for-equity swaps, and government stakes rather than conventional project finance structures.
•Floor price mechanism as policy solution: To build Western tungsten supply, governments need to offer medium-term price floors — three to five years minimum — so miners can borrow against guaranteed revenue. Without this, private capital stays away because Chinese producers can flood the market at any time, instantly bankrupting higher-cost Western operations, as happened repeatedly after World War One and the Cold War.
•Strategic minerals require narrow targeting: The US Project Vault critical minerals reserve risks becoming a price-support mechanism for common commodities like copper, nickel, and aluminum rather than genuinely scarce strategic inputs. Effective policy should concentrate on a short list — tungsten, rare earths, gallium, germanium — where China holds near-monopoly control and substitution is technically difficult within relevant military and industrial timeframes.

Notable Moment

Bloomberg reporter David Fickling revealed that America's last domestic tungsten mine was operated by a single retired Vietnam veteran digging a few tons each summer in mountains east of Los Angeles. He wrote to Congress in 2012 warning about Chinese dominance — and was largely ignored until now.

Know someone who'd find this useful?

Episode Transcript

Over 90% of publicly traded companies are listed outside The United States. So why limit your investing opportunities to one market? Interactive Brokers gives you access to stocks, options, crypto, prediction markets, futures, bonds, and more across over 170 markets in 29 currencies. The world is your market. Invest beyond borders. Join more than 5,000,000 investors worldwide at ibkr.com/invest. Restrictions apply. For more information and support, see ibkr.com/yibkr. The kids really love that playhouse, Yeah. It's not just a child's playhouse. It's a rental property. Kids, off Gary's roof. Someone lives in there? Lives, works, and thrives. Your Wi Fi reaches all the way to the playhouse? We're gagillionaires. It reaches everywhere. Can I check it out? Sorry. Booked solid, but the treehouse just opened up. Live without limits. Get home Internet from AT and T and cover your whole house, even your playhouse turned rental property. AT and T extended Wi Fi covered service required. Limited availability. Visit att.com/internet to learn more. Health care doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So health care is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person, how you need it. Optum is helping make health care work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, I'm, I'm in a mood of a little bit of heartbreak this morning. Oh, mood of a little bit of heartbreak. That sounds like a country single, doesn't it? That's right. No. You're you're singing I know what you're sad about. You're singing the tungsten cube blues. The tungsten blues. I'm actually a little shook. In 2022, remember the tungsten cube hype? Unfortunately. I bought one, and it was the only I'm well aware. And it feels so good. Like, a nice big block of tungsten in your hand feels so good. It's so unexpectedly heavy. Probably, like, a little, like, wild autism, like, I like related, like, sort of, like, heavy things, like weighted blankets and heavy objects. And I was gonna bring it to this episode because I know you you you love props sometimes. You love I do like a good prop. And I was like, oh, I'll I'll bring a prop. I couldn't find it on my desk. So we did a desk move recently, and either somehow I I hope I still find it. Either it got misplaced in the move or because the value of tungsten has gone up so much, maybe someone stole it. I think I know which one it is, Joe. I think I know. Let me just say I have a messy desk too. For …

Get the full transcript (9,417 words) + summary by email — free

One-time email with the complete transcript and AI summary of this episode. No account needed.

One email, no spam. We’ll also show you what SignalCast does.

Browse all Odd Lots transcripts →