Graham Allison on the Risks of a US-China War

What It Covers

Harvard professor Graham Allison explains the Thucydides Trap framework for US-China relations, examining historical patterns where rising powers challenge ruling powers, leading to war in 12 of 16 cases studied over 500 years.

Key Questions Answered

• •Thucydides Trap dynamics: When a rising power threatens a ruling power, the structural shift creates misperceptions and miscalculations that amplify third-party incidents into conflicts. In 16 historical cases over 500 years, 12 ended in war, with World War One as the primary model.
• •Economic interdependence limits: The theory that economic entanglement prevents war failed before World War One when Norman Angell's bestselling book predicted no more wars. Today's US-China supply chain integration provides counterbalance but cannot eliminate geopolitical rivalry driven by structural power shifts and status anxiety.
• •China's non-missionary approach: Unlike the Soviet Union's ideological expansion or American democracy promotion, China seeks respect and territorial consolidation without converting other nations to its system. This fundamental difference may enable coexistence despite fierce economic and technological competition in multiple domains.
• •Taiwan as flashpoint risk: Third-party actions by Taiwan's president Lai pose the greatest danger for accidental escalation through naval or air collisions in the Taiwan Strait. Maintaining direct communication channels between US and China leadership provides essential circuit breakers to prevent incidents from spiraling into conflict.