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Masters in Business

Risk and Reward with Marek Capital Co-Founder Matt Cherwin

59 min episode · 2 min read
·
Marek Capital Co-founder Matt

Episode

59 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Startups, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • MCCLR Framework: Cherwin structures every investment decision through five lenses — money, capital, credit, liquidity, and regulation — arguing these five forces drive all economies, markets, and prices. Applying this lens reveals cross-market mispricings that narrowly mandated institutional investors systematically miss, creating exploitable gaps across rates, mortgages, ABS, CLOs, and corporate credit simultaneously.
  • Financial System Disaggregation: The traditional bank model has effectively been re-split along Glass-Steagall lines. GSIBs like JPMorgan hold deposits safely while firms like Apollo, Blackstone, and Ares now make the majority of credit extension decisions. Traders like Citadel Securities handle market-making. Recognizing which entity controls which function reveals where credit pricing dislocations originate and persist.
  • Trophy Office CRE Mispricing: Merrick identifies trophy-quality office buildings in gateway cities — New York, Miami, DC, San Francisco — as triple-B rated bonds that fundamentally perform as double-A credits. New GSIB firms (Apollo, KKR, Ares) are growing rapidly, face a genuine supply shortage of premium space, and occupy these buildings at near 100% occupancy despite broad market pessimism.
  • Financing Flywheel Underestimation: When rates fall and credit spreads tighten simultaneously, asset values rise, loan-to-value ratios improve, and refinancing costs drop further — compounding in a self-reinforcing cycle. Cherwin argues markets consistently underestimate the magnitude of this flywheel effect, and Merrick positions roughly 20 thematic trades to capture successive ripple effects rather than single-point price moves.
  • Liability-First Risk Management: Cherwin frames portfolio survival around liabilities, not assets, stating firms fail because of their liability structure before their assets deteriorate. Merrick uses stress-based scenario frameworks — including rate shocks, credit crunches, and flight-to-quality events — as starting points for attribution conversations rather than treating VAR or DV01 figures as definitive risk answers.

What It Covers

Matt Cherwin, co-founder and CIO of Merrick Capital, explains how sixteen years at JPMorgan Chase — including a front-row seat to the 2019 repo crisis and the COVID-era financial system — shaped a proprietary MCCLR framework (money, capital, credit, liquidity, regulation) now applied across a multi-asset credit hedge fund launched in 2024.

Key Questions Answered

  • MCCLR Framework: Cherwin structures every investment decision through five lenses — money, capital, credit, liquidity, and regulation — arguing these five forces drive all economies, markets, and prices. Applying this lens reveals cross-market mispricings that narrowly mandated institutional investors systematically miss, creating exploitable gaps across rates, mortgages, ABS, CLOs, and corporate credit simultaneously.
  • Financial System Disaggregation: The traditional bank model has effectively been re-split along Glass-Steagall lines. GSIBs like JPMorgan hold deposits safely while firms like Apollo, Blackstone, and Ares now make the majority of credit extension decisions. Traders like Citadel Securities handle market-making. Recognizing which entity controls which function reveals where credit pricing dislocations originate and persist.
  • Trophy Office CRE Mispricing: Merrick identifies trophy-quality office buildings in gateway cities — New York, Miami, DC, San Francisco — as triple-B rated bonds that fundamentally perform as double-A credits. New GSIB firms (Apollo, KKR, Ares) are growing rapidly, face a genuine supply shortage of premium space, and occupy these buildings at near 100% occupancy despite broad market pessimism.
  • Financing Flywheel Underestimation: When rates fall and credit spreads tighten simultaneously, asset values rise, loan-to-value ratios improve, and refinancing costs drop further — compounding in a self-reinforcing cycle. Cherwin argues markets consistently underestimate the magnitude of this flywheel effect, and Merrick positions roughly 20 thematic trades to capture successive ripple effects rather than single-point price moves.
  • Liability-First Risk Management: Cherwin frames portfolio survival around liabilities, not assets, stating firms fail because of their liability structure before their assets deteriorate. Merrick uses stress-based scenario frameworks — including rate shocks, credit crunches, and flight-to-quality events — as starting points for attribution conversations rather than treating VAR or DV01 figures as definitive risk answers.

Notable Moment

On his third day running JPMorgan's CIO group in late 2019, Cherwin authorized lending against Treasuries at 10% overnight — a rate he immediately recognized as extraordinary. That repo market seizure, followed within months by the pandemic, became the catalyst that reframed his entire twenty-year trading career.

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Episode Transcript

Every small business owner has that one moment that could have broken them. But remarkably, it didn't. Hi. I'm Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business. And on season three of The Unshakables, my co host Kathleen Griffith and I are bringing you more incredible stories of overcoming the impossible. We're really proud to share that The Unshakables is nominated for best branded podcast at the twenty twenty six iHeart podcast awards. Listen to the unshakable wherever you get your podcasts and learn more at chase.com/podcast. JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA member FDIC, copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase and Company. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced cost by millions, slashed repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. With Volley from iShares, you get access to both monthly income and growth potential in one simple ETF. It's the best of both worlds. Discover Volley, iShares large cap premium income active ETF. IShares, the market is yours. Visit www.ishares.com to view a prospectus for investment objectives, risks, fees, expenses, and other information that you should read and consider carefully before investing. Risks include principal loss and the use of derivatives, which could increase risks and volatility. Monthly income is not guaranteed. Prepare by BlackRock Investments LLC. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio. This week on the podcast, another extra special guest. Matt Cherwin is cofounder and chief investment officer at Merit Capital. He previously spent sixteen years at JPMorgan Chase and then a bunch of years at, Citigroup beforehand running all sorts of spread markets, head of securitized product, lots of CIO and risk management titles. I came to Numerick through, a a live event we did at Bloomberg last year. I found that his approach to credit and trading is absolutely fascinating, and what Merrick is doing is really quite interesting. I thought the conversation was brilliant, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my conversation with Merit Capital's Matt Cherwin. Matt Cherwin, welcome to Bloomberg. Thanks for having me. This is exciting. That was kinda that was that was a bigger wind up than I was, expecting. I like a big wind up because it gives us an opportunity to roll back to the beginning and say, alright. Bachelor's in economics from University of Pennsylvania. What was the original career plan? I I don't imagine people going to college and saying, I wanna be the head of global spread markets. No. But that's super interesting because, our oldest, is a sophomore in college now. Mhmm. And he's in the business school at American. And I was just talking to him …

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