Tariff whack-a-mole

What It Covers

This March 13 episode covers four converging economic pressures: pre-war baseline data losing relevance as oil prices push core PCE inflation above 3%, the Trump administration's tariff whack-a-mole strategy after Supreme Court rulings, counterfeit beauty products on third-party platforms, and the CFTC's new scrutiny of largely unregulated prediction markets.

Key Questions Answered

• •Stagflation Risk: Q1 2025 GDP grew at only 0.7%, below expectations, while core PCE inflation broke above 3% and oil prices climbed into the $90+ range. When rising energy costs seep into supply chains across multiple industries simultaneously, inflation becomes harder to contain — watch Fed Chair Powell's language at next week's FOMC meeting for signals on rate cut timelines.
• •Tariff Whack-a-Mole Strategy: After the Supreme Court struck down Liberation Day tariffs in February, the Trump administration launched Section 232 and Section 301 trade investigations into dozens of countries — including Canada, Mexico, the UK, and the EU. Legal experts call new tariffs a "foregone conclusion," with the administration racing to finalize permanent replacements before temporary tariffs expire in July 2025.
• •Third-Party Seller Risk: Approximately 95% of products listed on Walmart.com come from third-party sellers. A Wirecutter experiment sent 13 beauty products purchased from third-party Amazon sellers to a cosmetic chemist — every single item tested as almost certainly counterfeit or showed red flags like bacterial growth, expired formulations, or signs of prior use. Buy cosmetics only from brand websites or authorized retail partners.
• •SNAP Restriction Ripple Effects: About 20 states now have federal waivers to restrict SNAP purchases of items like soda and candy. Research suggests recipients will simply buy restricted items with non-SNAP dollars rather than change diets. The added administrative burden on retailers — who must classify items category by category — risks stores dropping SNAP acceptance entirely, reducing food access in rural areas.
• •Prediction Market Regulation Gap: Prediction markets processed over $40 billion in contracts in 2024 but operate under commodities futures regulations, bypassing the multi-layered integrity monitoring required of licensed sportsbooks. The CFTC issued new guidance encouraging coordination with sports leagues and fraud monitors, but compliance remains voluntary — Israeli authorities already arrested two people for using classified military intelligence to profit on Polymarket.