Corporations expected to take on record debt in 2026

What It Covers

Corporate debt issuance expected to hit record levels in 2026 driven by refinancing needs, merger activity, and AI infrastructure spending, while Altadena businesses struggle to rebuild one year after the Eaton fire.

Key Questions Answered

• •Corporate Refinancing Wave: Companies issued massive debt in 2020-2021 at low rates, and much expires in 2026, forcing refinancing at higher current rates. This represents the primary driver of record debt issuance expected this year, with companies scrambling to replace expiring obligations.
• •M&A Debt Financing: Debt-financed merger and acquisition volumes projected to increase approximately 25% year-over-year as companies use borrowed capital to fund acquisitions. Strong corporate balance sheets and expected economic growth make investors eager to buy corporate bonds despite higher interest rates than previous years.
• •AI Infrastructure Capital: Big tech companies face massive capital expenditure requirements for data center construction and AI infrastructure, funding expansion through debt issuance. Heavy equipment manufacturers and suppliers also issue bonds to support this buildout, creating cascading debt across the technology supply chain throughout the country.
• •Brisket Price Crisis: Beef brisket costs jumped from 30 dollars per 15-pound cut in 2021 to 110-115 dollars currently, a nearly 300% increase. Texas barbecue restaurants face existential pressure as this peasant food becomes unaffordable for working-class customers in rural areas, with profit margins depending entirely on selling every brisket smoked.