What are the key takeaways from this Investing for Beginners episode?

Key insights include: **Revenue Growth vs. Stock Price Divergence:** On Holding grew revenues nearly 50% annually over five years, expanding from under $300M to $3.8B — a 10x increase — while the stock remained flat over that same period. This illustrates how overpaying at peak valuations can neutralize even exceptional business performance, making entry timing a critical variable in long-term returns.; **Forward PE as Valuation Signal:** When a stock trades at a 45x trailing PE but only 22x forward PE, Wall Street is pricing in an earnings doubling within roughly 12 months. Investors should evaluate whether that implied growth is realistic before dismissing a stock as expensive. On Holding's forward PE sits at its historically lowest level, signaling a potential entry window.; **Apparel Revenue as an Untapped Growth Lever:** On Holding generates 93% of revenue from footwear, with apparel at only $160M — roughly 5% of total sales. Nike and Adidas derive nearly 40-50% of revenue from apparel. Investors evaluating growth ceiling should model apparel expansion as a separate runway, distinct from core shoe sales, when estimating total addressable market.

What did Andrew Saylor discuss on Investing for Beginners?

Stephen Morris and Andrew Saylor conduct a live, unscripted research session on On Holding (ONON), a Swiss premium footwear brand with $3.8B in 2025 revenue, examining growth metrics, competitive positioning, pricing power, management structure, and whether the stock justifies its current 45x PE valuation. Key topics include: **Revenue Growth vs. Stock Price Divergence:** On Holding grew revenues nearly 50% annually over five years, expanding from under $300M to $3.8B — a 10x increase — while the stock remained flat over that same period. This illustrates how overpaying at peak valuations can neutralize even exceptional business performance, making entry timing a critical variable in long-term returns.; **Forward PE as Valuation Signal:** When a stock trades at a 45x trailing PE but only 22x forward PE, Wall Street is pricing in an earnings doubling within roughly 12 months. Investors should evaluate whether that implied growth is realistic before dismissing a stock as expensive. On Holding's forward PE sits at its historically lowest level, signaling a potential entry window..

How long is this episode of Investing for Beginners?

This episode is 55 minutes long. SignalCast provides an AI-generated summary so you can get the key insights in about 3 minutes.

Investing for Beginners

Live Research: On Holding (ONON) — Great Growth, Big Questions

May 28, 2026

55 min episode · 2 min read

Andrew Saylor

Episode

55 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Investing, Startups

AI-Generated Summary

Published May 28, 2026

Key Takeaways

✓Revenue Growth vs. Stock Price Divergence: On Holding grew revenues nearly 50% annually over five years, expanding from under $300M to $3.8B — a 10x increase — while the stock remained flat over that same period. This illustrates how overpaying at peak valuations can neutralize even exceptional business performance, making entry timing a critical variable in long-term returns.
✓Forward PE as Valuation Signal: When a stock trades at a 45x trailing PE but only 22x forward PE, Wall Street is pricing in an earnings doubling within roughly 12 months. Investors should evaluate whether that implied growth is realistic before dismissing a stock as expensive. On Holding's forward PE sits at its historically lowest level, signaling a potential entry window.
✓Apparel Revenue as an Untapped Growth Lever: On Holding generates 93% of revenue from footwear, with apparel at only $160M — roughly 5% of total sales. Nike and Adidas derive nearly 40-50% of revenue from apparel. Investors evaluating growth ceiling should model apparel expansion as a separate runway, distinct from core shoe sales, when estimating total addressable market.
✓DTC Strategy Carries Concentrated Wholesale Risk: On Holding sources 58.2% of wholesale revenue from Dick's Sporting Goods alone while aggressively pivoting toward direct-to-consumer sales and targeting 67 current retail locations for expansion. Nike attempted a similar DTC shift and saw its stock fall roughly 65% from peak. Investors should track wholesale revenue concentration quarterly as a leading risk indicator.
✓Majority Voting Control Limits Shareholder Influence: Three cofounders — Oliver, Bernhard Koeppetti, and David Aleman — collectively hold majority voting power while maintaining lower economic ownership. The departing CEO cited philanthropic pursuits as his reason for leaving. When founders hold voting control without proportional economic stake, capital return policies like dividends or buybacks can be indefinitely deferred regardless of shareholder preference.

What It Covers

Stephen Morris and Andrew Saylor conduct a live, unscripted research session on On Holding (ONON), a Swiss premium footwear brand with $3.8B in 2025 revenue, examining growth metrics, competitive positioning, pricing power, management structure, and whether the stock justifies its current 45x PE valuation.

Key Questions Answered

•Revenue Growth vs. Stock Price Divergence: On Holding grew revenues nearly 50% annually over five years, expanding from under $300M to $3.8B — a 10x increase — while the stock remained flat over that same period. This illustrates how overpaying at peak valuations can neutralize even exceptional business performance, making entry timing a critical variable in long-term returns.
•Forward PE as Valuation Signal: When a stock trades at a 45x trailing PE but only 22x forward PE, Wall Street is pricing in an earnings doubling within roughly 12 months. Investors should evaluate whether that implied growth is realistic before dismissing a stock as expensive. On Holding's forward PE sits at its historically lowest level, signaling a potential entry window.
•Apparel Revenue as an Untapped Growth Lever: On Holding generates 93% of revenue from footwear, with apparel at only $160M — roughly 5% of total sales. Nike and Adidas derive nearly 40-50% of revenue from apparel. Investors evaluating growth ceiling should model apparel expansion as a separate runway, distinct from core shoe sales, when estimating total addressable market.
•DTC Strategy Carries Concentrated Wholesale Risk: On Holding sources 58.2% of wholesale revenue from Dick's Sporting Goods alone while aggressively pivoting toward direct-to-consumer sales and targeting 67 current retail locations for expansion. Nike attempted a similar DTC shift and saw its stock fall roughly 65% from peak. Investors should track wholesale revenue concentration quarterly as a leading risk indicator.
•Majority Voting Control Limits Shareholder Influence: Three cofounders — Oliver, Bernhard Koeppetti, and David Aleman — collectively hold majority voting power while maintaining lower economic ownership. The departing CEO cited philanthropic pursuits as his reason for leaving. When founders hold voting control without proportional economic stake, capital return policies like dividends or buybacks can be indefinitely deferred regardless of shareholder preference.

Notable Moment

The hosts discover that On Holding's most concentrated retail presence — 38 of 67 stores — sits in China, which generates only 17% of total revenue. This inverse relationship between physical retail investment and actual revenue output raises questions about whether aggressive store expansion translates into meaningful sales growth.

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Episode Transcript

Alright. So today, we're doing something a little bit different. Today, we're going to actually research a company live on air in real time. There's no fancy script. There's no we already know the answers to what we're looking for because Andrew and I really don't know a whole lot about this company. I love their product. That's all I know. I know we've talked in the past couple of weeks about the process of identifying a good company, I you know, finding your circle of competence, things like that. This is kinda checking off all those boxes as we look into this company to see if we wanna invest it. So quick warning, it may feel a little boring in spots, but we will do our best to be entertaining. I promise. So buckle up. Let's go. You're tuned in You're tuned in. To the investing for beginners podcast investing for beginners podcast. The show for the long term investor. We cut through the noise to focus on what works, compounding, discipline, discipline, and the conviction to buy wonderful businesses and stick with them. Your path to financial freedom start now. Welcome back to the investing for beginner guys. My name is Stephen Morris. He is Andrew Saylor. And like I said in the opening, we got a little bit of a different feel for you all today. We're going to research a company that I know nothing about other than its product. Andrew, what company are we talking about today? We're talking about On Holding. They are a shoe brand, and they are from Switzerland. Right. So, that instantly isn't a red flag, but that that's good information to know because now we know we're looking for a 20 f, not a 10 k, in that regard. So like I said, like, we we have no, I I at least I have no knowledge of this. Andrew, like, why would you say your knowledge of the company would be? And Oh, I did about, like, an hour of research maybe before we got on just because it was something that I'm looking at. And a company I've been following for a while because I I own a couple of pairs of their shoes, and I like their shoes. It's it's if you if you're not familiar with the the brand, it's kind of on the higher end, I guess, or premium segment of shoe. You know? You would go to, like, a shoe carnival or, where whatever discount shoe place you're going to. It's not gonna be there likely. It's it's more you gotta go to, like, a Dick's Sporting Goods or somewhere and pay a premium for it. But, I probably wore out like, if we talk about how many miles you could put on a shoe, I bought the On Cloud running the walking shoe. Mhmm. And I probably wore those for, like, two or three years almost every day. Like, that kinda dad vibe going …

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