Live Research: On Holding (ONON) — Great Growth, Big Questions

May 28, 2026

55 min episode · 2 min read

Andrew Saylor

Episode

55 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Science & Discovery

AI-Generated Summary

Published May 28, 2026

Key Takeaways

✓Revenue Growth vs. Stock Price Divergence: On Holding grew revenues nearly 50% annually over five years, expanding from under $300M to $3.8B — a 10x increase — while the stock remained flat over that same period. This illustrates how overpaying at peak valuations can neutralize even exceptional business performance, making entry timing a critical variable in long-term returns.
✓Forward PE as Valuation Signal: When a stock trades at a 45x trailing PE but only 22x forward PE, Wall Street is pricing in an earnings doubling within roughly 12 months. Investors should evaluate whether that implied growth is realistic before dismissing a stock as expensive. On Holding's forward PE sits at its historically lowest level, signaling a potential entry window.
✓Apparel Revenue as an Untapped Growth Lever: On Holding generates 93% of revenue from footwear, with apparel at only $160M — roughly 5% of total sales. Nike and Adidas derive nearly 40-50% of revenue from apparel. Investors evaluating growth ceiling should model apparel expansion as a separate runway, distinct from core shoe sales, when estimating total addressable market.
✓DTC Strategy Carries Concentrated Wholesale Risk: On Holding sources 58.2% of wholesale revenue from Dick's Sporting Goods alone while aggressively pivoting toward direct-to-consumer sales and targeting 67 current retail locations for expansion. Nike attempted a similar DTC shift and saw its stock fall roughly 65% from peak. Investors should track wholesale revenue concentration quarterly as a leading risk indicator.
✓Majority Voting Control Limits Shareholder Influence: Three cofounders — Oliver, Bernhard Koeppetti, and David Aleman — collectively hold majority voting power while maintaining lower economic ownership. The departing CEO cited philanthropic pursuits as his reason for leaving. When founders hold voting control without proportional economic stake, capital return policies like dividends or buybacks can be indefinitely deferred regardless of shareholder preference.

What It Covers

Stephen Morris and Andrew Saylor conduct a live, unscripted research session on On Holding (ONON), a Swiss premium footwear brand with $3.8B in 2025 revenue, examining growth metrics, competitive positioning, pricing power, management structure, and whether the stock justifies its current 45x PE valuation.

Key Questions Answered

•Revenue Growth vs. Stock Price Divergence: On Holding grew revenues nearly 50% annually over five years, expanding from under $300M to $3.8B — a 10x increase — while the stock remained flat over that same period. This illustrates how overpaying at peak valuations can neutralize even exceptional business performance, making entry timing a critical variable in long-term returns.
•Forward PE as Valuation Signal: When a stock trades at a 45x trailing PE but only 22x forward PE, Wall Street is pricing in an earnings doubling within roughly 12 months. Investors should evaluate whether that implied growth is realistic before dismissing a stock as expensive. On Holding's forward PE sits at its historically lowest level, signaling a potential entry window.
•Apparel Revenue as an Untapped Growth Lever: On Holding generates 93% of revenue from footwear, with apparel at only $160M — roughly 5% of total sales. Nike and Adidas derive nearly 40-50% of revenue from apparel. Investors evaluating growth ceiling should model apparel expansion as a separate runway, distinct from core shoe sales, when estimating total addressable market.
•DTC Strategy Carries Concentrated Wholesale Risk: On Holding sources 58.2% of wholesale revenue from Dick's Sporting Goods alone while aggressively pivoting toward direct-to-consumer sales and targeting 67 current retail locations for expansion. Nike attempted a similar DTC shift and saw its stock fall roughly 65% from peak. Investors should track wholesale revenue concentration quarterly as a leading risk indicator.
•Majority Voting Control Limits Shareholder Influence: Three cofounders — Oliver, Bernhard Koeppetti, and David Aleman — collectively hold majority voting power while maintaining lower economic ownership. The departing CEO cited philanthropic pursuits as his reason for leaving. When founders hold voting control without proportional economic stake, capital return policies like dividends or buybacks can be indefinitely deferred regardless of shareholder preference.

Notable Moment

The hosts discover that On Holding's most concentrated retail presence — 38 of 67 stores — sits in China, which generates only 17% of total revenue. This inverse relationship between physical retail investment and actual revenue output raises questions about whether aggressive store expansion translates into meaningful sales growth.

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