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Freakonomics Radio

664. Are Thousands of Medical Cures Hiding in Plain Sight?

51 min episode · 2 min read
·
David Fagenbaum

Episode

51 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Startups, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • The Repurposing Math: Only 25% of the 18,000 known human diseases have FDA-approved treatments, yet repurposing existing drugs costs roughly 1% of developing a new compound from scratch. Generic drugs are already manufactured, safety-tested, and available at pharmacies, making them the highest-ROI path to closing the treatment gap for the remaining 13,500+ untreated diseases.
  • AI Knowledge Graphs: EveryCure's platform maps every drug, disease, gene, and protein into a biomedical knowledge graph, scoring all 4,000 approved drugs against all 18,000 diseases from 0 to 1. Scores near 0.99 flag the strongest repurposing candidates for human medical review, dramatically narrowing where researchers should focus clinical trial resources first.
  • Lidocaine and Breast Cancer: A 1,600-patient randomized trial published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology found that injecting lidocaine — a standard surgical numbing agent already used in nearly every procedure — around breast tumors eight to ten minutes before excision reduced patient mortality by 29%. Despite this result, no widespread adoption has occurred due to absent commercial incentives.
  • Pull Funding Mechanism: The Market Shaping Accelerator proposes a federal pull-funding program where Medicare or Medicaid pays companies a percentage of documented savings per patient after a repurposed generic drug proves effective. Estimated cost runs roughly $1 billion per successful indication, but government pays nothing unless measurable patient outcomes are confirmed first.
  • Advanced Market Commitments Work: The 2009 pneumococcal vaccine advanced market commitment — a $1.5 billion fund backed by the Gates Foundation and five governments — attracted three manufacturers, drove prices down, and has been credited with saving 700,000 children's lives. The same pull-funding model accelerated COVID-19 vaccine development, compressing a multi-year timeline into months.

What It Covers

Freakonomics Radio examines drug repurposing — using FDA-approved medications for new diseases — through physician-scientist David Fagenbaum's survival story, EveryCure's AI-driven platform scanning 4,000 drugs against 18,000 diseases, and economist Chris Snyder's pull-funding proposal to fix broken financial incentives blocking life-saving discoveries already sitting on pharmacy shelves.

Key Questions Answered

  • The Repurposing Math: Only 25% of the 18,000 known human diseases have FDA-approved treatments, yet repurposing existing drugs costs roughly 1% of developing a new compound from scratch. Generic drugs are already manufactured, safety-tested, and available at pharmacies, making them the highest-ROI path to closing the treatment gap for the remaining 13,500+ untreated diseases.
  • AI Knowledge Graphs: EveryCure's platform maps every drug, disease, gene, and protein into a biomedical knowledge graph, scoring all 4,000 approved drugs against all 18,000 diseases from 0 to 1. Scores near 0.99 flag the strongest repurposing candidates for human medical review, dramatically narrowing where researchers should focus clinical trial resources first.
  • Lidocaine and Breast Cancer: A 1,600-patient randomized trial published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology found that injecting lidocaine — a standard surgical numbing agent already used in nearly every procedure — around breast tumors eight to ten minutes before excision reduced patient mortality by 29%. Despite this result, no widespread adoption has occurred due to absent commercial incentives.
  • Pull Funding Mechanism: The Market Shaping Accelerator proposes a federal pull-funding program where Medicare or Medicaid pays companies a percentage of documented savings per patient after a repurposed generic drug proves effective. Estimated cost runs roughly $1 billion per successful indication, but government pays nothing unless measurable patient outcomes are confirmed first.
  • Advanced Market Commitments Work: The 2009 pneumococcal vaccine advanced market commitment — a $1.5 billion fund backed by the Gates Foundation and five governments — attracted three manufacturers, drove prices down, and has been credited with saving 700,000 children's lives. The same pull-funding model accelerated COVID-19 vaccine development, compressing a multi-year timeline into months.

Notable Moment

Fagenbaum discovered that rapamycin — the drug that saved his life — nearly never existed. The pharmaceutical company ordered it destroyed after it proved a poor antifungal. A researcher secretly stored it in his personal freezer until new management allowed further study, decades before Fagenbaum needed it.

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Episode Transcript

There is a horrible infectious disease that you have probably never heard of. It's called balamuthea. It's basically a brain eating amoeba. They don't really know how it's transmitted probably through some sort of soil exposure. It causes encephalitis, which is swelling in parts of the brain. It can kill you in relatively short order. It's extremely rare, and so there's been very little study of it. That is Heather Stone. She is a health science policy analyst in the Food and Drug Administration. The FDA has not approved any treatments for balamuthia, but that doesn't necessarily mean there aren't any treatments. Three or four years ago, a clinician in San Francisco at University of California treated the first patient with a drug called nitroxylin, which had been approved in Europe for fifty years for urinary tract infections. One preclinical study had shown off the chart amoebicidal activity that nobody had ever known about. You might not think that a UTI drug could treat a brain eating amoeba, but biochemistry can surprise you. A couple of years later, I got a call from a mother of a young girl who had been infected with balamuthia and was not expected to survive. And she was desperately trying to get a hold of nitroxylin. I was able to help get what's called an emergency IND, an investigational new drug application. Because the drug is not approved in The US, but it's approved in Europe, you have to get special permission from the FDA to use the drug. They sent the drug, and Elena had a pretty remarkable recovery. Now, I mean, it's not a miracle cure. There have been other patients who have received the treatment who have not survived. But for a disease that had a ninety percent fatality rate, to have two patients survive like that was pretty remarkable. There are 18,000 known human diseases, but only about a quarter of them have an FDA approved treatment. So is the story of balamuthia a story that could be replicated? How many more things are there that we could potentially uncover to save lives today? Because these drugs are already at the pharmacy. They're already manufactured. They're already available. Today on Freakonomics Radio, the economics of repurposed drugs with a special guest host Steve Levitt, my Freakonomics friend and co author who is a professor emeritus at the University of Chicago. And that episode starts now. This is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything with your guest host, Steve Levitt. Hi. I'm Steve Levitt, and I'd like you to meet a doctor with an unusual life story. My name is David Fagenbaum, and I'm cofounder president of EveryCure and also a physician scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. David Fagenbaum grew up in North Carolina, his parents were from Trinidad, and his father was a surgeon. But he didn't always think that medicine would be his chosen path. When I was about eight or nine years …

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  • A 1,600-patient randomized trial published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology found that injecting lidocaine — a standard surgical numbing agent already used in nearly every procedure — around breast tumors eight to ten minutes before excision reduced patient mortality by 29%.
  • The Market Shaping Accelerator proposes a federal pull-funding program where Medicare or Medicaid pays companies a percentage of documented savings per patient after a repurposed generic drug proves effective.

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  • EveryCure's AI-driven platform scanning 4,000 drugs against 18,000 diseases

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