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Cognitive Revolution

AI:AM: Was Trump-Xi Anything? What Counts as Utopia? + AWS GPUs Cost 3X & AI Diagnoses Rare Diseases

89 min episode · 3 min read
·
Ed Harris,Steve Ho,Joel Borgan

Episode

89 min

Read time

3 min

Topics

Remote Work, Relationships, Startups

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • ✓US-China AI Verification Gap: Without pre-established verification infrastructure, the only available response to a major AI incident would be demanding China shut down all data centers above a certain compute threshold — an astronomically costly ask for both sides. Verification startups should engage intelligence community contacts now, before a crisis, because vetting new national technical means historically takes years of serial bureaucratic time that cannot be compressed.
  • ✓Reciprocal Transparency as Low-Cost Signal: Offering China limited visibility into US frontier lab activities may cost little in practice, since Chinese actors already have deep access to US systems. Structured transparency — showing enough to confirm the US is not pursuing decisive strategic dominance — could stabilize relations without meaningful intelligence loss, and could be piloted first between OpenAI and Anthropic as a domestic test bed.
  • ✓Hyperscaler GPU Markup: Renting H100s from AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud consistently costs two to three times more than equivalent neo-cloud providers. The premium reflects bundled software, compliance tooling, long-term enterprise relationships, and product differentiation — not raw compute performance. Silicon Data's index separates these categories, treating hyperscaler pricing as a distinct product class rather than a comparable unit of compute.
  • ✓Ultrafast Inference Changes Software Development: OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra Ultrafast runs at eight times the speed of prior fast modes, enabling real-time interactive co-creation — building a game collaboratively while staying in flow, rather than submitting prompts and waiting. Speed at equivalent intelligence levels is the next major capability threshold, shifting AI from an asynchronous tool to a synchronous creative partner during active development sessions.
  • ✓AI Novel Co-authorship Requires Human Architecture: AI models handle scene execution well but consistently produce unreadable prose without detailed human scaffolding — a chapter plan, beat structure, and post-generation editing pass. Author Joel Borgen pre-architected the first half of his novel before engaging models, then edited AI output down roughly 14%, removing over-explanation and generic phrasing. Context length expansion was the single largest unlock enabling full-novel coherence across sessions.

What It Covers

Four segments cover US-China AI verification diplomacy with Gladstone AI's Harris brothers, GPU pricing disparities between hyperscalers and neo-clouds via Silicon Data's Steve Ho, AI-assisted novel writing with author Joel Borgen, and Gamo Labs founder Daniel McKinnon's use of AI agents to diagnose rare genetic diseases in previously unresolved pediatric cases.

Key Questions Answered

  • •US-China AI Verification Gap: Without pre-established verification infrastructure, the only available response to a major AI incident would be demanding China shut down all data centers above a certain compute threshold — an astronomically costly ask for both sides. Verification startups should engage intelligence community contacts now, before a crisis, because vetting new national technical means historically takes years of serial bureaucratic time that cannot be compressed.
  • •Reciprocal Transparency as Low-Cost Signal: Offering China limited visibility into US frontier lab activities may cost little in practice, since Chinese actors already have deep access to US systems. Structured transparency — showing enough to confirm the US is not pursuing decisive strategic dominance — could stabilize relations without meaningful intelligence loss, and could be piloted first between OpenAI and Anthropic as a domestic test bed.
  • •Hyperscaler GPU Markup: Renting H100s from AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud consistently costs two to three times more than equivalent neo-cloud providers. The premium reflects bundled software, compliance tooling, long-term enterprise relationships, and product differentiation — not raw compute performance. Silicon Data's index separates these categories, treating hyperscaler pricing as a distinct product class rather than a comparable unit of compute.
  • •Ultrafast Inference Changes Software Development: OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra Ultrafast runs at eight times the speed of prior fast modes, enabling real-time interactive co-creation — building a game collaboratively while staying in flow, rather than submitting prompts and waiting. Speed at equivalent intelligence levels is the next major capability threshold, shifting AI from an asynchronous tool to a synchronous creative partner during active development sessions.
  • •AI Novel Co-authorship Requires Human Architecture: AI models handle scene execution well but consistently produce unreadable prose without detailed human scaffolding — a chapter plan, beat structure, and post-generation editing pass. Author Joel Borgen pre-architected the first half of his novel before engaging models, then edited AI output down roughly 14%, removing over-explanation and generic phrasing. Context length expansion was the single largest unlock enabling full-novel coherence across sessions.
  • •Genomic Interpretation Bottleneck, Not Sequencing: Whole genome sequencing now costs under $100 at high-throughput labs, but interpretation remains the unsolved problem. Vanilla Claude Opus scores approximately 50% on Gamo Labs' RareBench variant prioritization benchmark, versus roughly 10% for the leading traditional ML tool Lyrical. Gamo's pipeline uses model ensembling with case-specific routing — Claude, Grok, and Gemini each perform better on distinct case clusters — plus a harness that prevents agents from hallucinating gene name substitutions.

Notable Moment

Daniel McKinnon described a case where a state-of-the-art model correctly identified a causative gene but then spontaneously renamed it to a different gene mid-reasoning — a failure mode he had never encountered before. His evaluation harness caught and blocked the error, illustrating why trace-level analysis of agent behavior matters more than top-line benchmark scores.

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Episode Transcript

Real things are starting to happen. This week on AI in the AM. On AI risk and verification, we heard from Jeremy and Ed Harris of Gladstone AI. They remain hardboiled realists about US China cooperation, but this week I heard a slight thaw. Here, Ed considers what reciprocal transparency could offer the two countries. Certain kinds of transparency can be stabilizing. So the the kind of transparency that goes like, hey. We're giving you enough vision into what we're doing to see that we are not doing the thing you fear most. That that sort of thing is is potentially useful. And additionally, may not actually be that costly to us to do depending on how we implement it simply because the Chinese are already all up in our systems. So really, we're not giving anything away that they don't necessarily have already in in many cases potentially. Steve Ho, head of research at Silicon Data, which builds GPU price indexes. We asked why renting apparently identical chips costs so much more at the big cloud providers. So in the case of hyperscalers, indeed, you are observing correctly, they charge regularly, consistently, at least two to three times, sometimes more compared to a typical... A new cloud. The reason has to do with a long legacy of whether it's other type of products being offered on their platform, software analytics, safety, compliance, the fact that they already have this long established relationship with enterprise users that have been on board for a long time that have a certain stickiness for moving. It is being sold as a very much of a differentiated product. Prakash, my cohost on AI in the AM. We spent part of the week on OpenAI Dev Day. Here, what changes for building software when the models get faster at the same level of intelligence? With Ultrafast, you can... As you type, you can interact. It's an interactive kind of build... Software build out, actively building games. I think I think that's really the future. I think the speed, the latency at same intelligence is probably something that is going to be very important, especially as you clear these hurdles of capability. Thing can build a game, but can the thing build a game with you in the moment while keeping you in flow? Joel Borgan co wrote his novel with AI models. The text has a few AI ticks, but the book is legitimately good. Here, what he supplies as architecture and why the prose still needs him. I mean, I I started the project knowing more or less what I wanted to have made. I sketched it out myself, especially the first half or so of the book was pretty well set before engaging the models. And then the models are good at certain things. They're getting better at everything. But as far as just prose writing itself, even if you tell it exactly what you want and you have a plan for a …

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Books, tools, and gear mentioned in this episode

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Tools

  • by Silicon Data

    “Silicon Data's index separates these categories, treating hyperscaler pricing as a distinct product class rather than a comparable unit of compute.”
  • by Gamo Labs

    “Vanilla Claude Opus scores approximately 50% on Gamo Labs' RareBench variant prioritization benchmark”
  • “roughly 10% for the leading traditional ML tool Lyrical”
  • by Anthropic

    “Vanilla Claude Opus scores approximately 50% on Gamo Labs' RareBench variant prioritization benchmark”
  • “Gamo's pipeline uses model ensembling with case-specific routing — Claude, Grok, and Gemini each perform better on distinct case clusters”
  • “Gamo's pipeline uses model ensembling with case-specific routing — Claude, Grok, and Gemini each perform better on distinct case clusters”
  • by OpenAI

    “OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra Ultrafast runs at eight times the speed of prior fast modes, enabling real-time interactive co-creation”

company

  • “US-China AI verification diplomacy with Gladstone AI's Harris brothers”
  • “GPU pricing disparities between hyperscalers and neo-clouds via Silicon Data's Steve Ho”
  • “Gamo Labs founder Daniel McKinnon's use of AI agents to diagnose rare genetic diseases”
  • “Structured transparency — showing enough to confirm the US is not pursuing decisive strategic dominance — could be piloted first between OpenAI and Anthropic as a domestic test bed.”
  • “Structured transparency — showing enough to confirm the US is not pursuing decisive strategic dominance — could be piloted first between OpenAI and Anthropic as a domestic test bed.”
  • “Renting H100s from AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud consistently costs two to three times more than equivalent neo-cloud providers.”
  • “Renting H100s from AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud consistently costs two to three times more than equivalent neo-cloud providers.”
  • “Renting H100s from AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud consistently costs two to three times more than equivalent neo-cloud providers.”

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