Zillow Forecast: Best and Worst Housing Markets of 2026
Episode
35 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Productivity, Investing
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Affordability drives growth: Markets like Hartford CT, Milwaukee WI, and Springfield MA lead appreciation at 3-5% because local residents can actually afford homes, unlike overheated markets experiencing corrections of 10-13% annually.
- ✓Supply imbalance signals opportunity: Austin shows 17,403 sellers versus only 7,568 buyers—a 130% imbalance. Markets with 2:1 seller-to-buyer ratios create negotiation leverage and potential 10-20% discounts for risk-tolerant long-term investors with reserves.
- ✓Rent-price divergence creates value: San Francisco rents grew 5% while prices declined. Markets where rents rise but prices stay flat improve cash flow prospects after years of deterioration, offering better investment fundamentals than dual-declining markets.
- ✓Florida faces statewide correction: Multiple Florida metros down 10-13% year-over-year due to oversupply, insurance costs, and condo assessments. Seven of ten worst-performing markets in Louisiana and Texas show double-digit potential losses from peak to bottom.
What It Covers
Dave Meyer analyzes Zillow's 2026 metro-level housing forecasts, examining regional price trends, rent growth patterns, and market opportunities across US cities, with focus on affordability-driven market divergence and correction risks.
Key Questions Answered
- •Affordability drives growth: Markets like Hartford CT, Milwaukee WI, and Springfield MA lead appreciation at 3-5% because local residents can actually afford homes, unlike overheated markets experiencing corrections of 10-13% annually.
- •Supply imbalance signals opportunity: Austin shows 17,403 sellers versus only 7,568 buyers—a 130% imbalance. Markets with 2:1 seller-to-buyer ratios create negotiation leverage and potential 10-20% discounts for risk-tolerant long-term investors with reserves.
- •Rent-price divergence creates value: San Francisco rents grew 5% while prices declined. Markets where rents rise but prices stay flat improve cash flow prospects after years of deterioration, offering better investment fundamentals than dual-declining markets.
- •Florida faces statewide correction: Multiple Florida metros down 10-13% year-over-year due to oversupply, insurance costs, and condo assessments. Seven of ten worst-performing markets in Louisiana and Texas show double-digit potential losses from peak to bottom.
Notable Moment
Meyer reveals his Denver basement unit rent dropped from $1,900 to $1,700 monthly, demonstrating how mediocre properties suffer disproportionate rent declines while premium units maintain pricing power during market corrections.
Episode Transcript
Hey, friends. It's Dave Meyer, host of the Bigger Pockets Podcast. I hope you are all enjoying the holiday season. To close out the year here on the Bigger Pockets Podcast, we're republishing a few of our most popular episodes this year from across the entire BiggerPockets podcast network. Today, it's an episode of On the Market originally published back on October 30. This show is me breaking down Zillow's 2026 metro level price forecast. So if you are curious whether Zillow thinks prices are gonna go up or go down in your region of the country, or maybe you're looking for a new market to invest in, or maybe you just wanna nerd out with me because you love looking at which cities are trending up and down, the next thirty minutes has all of that. So enjoy, and I'll be back with fresh new episodes starting January 2. Hey, everyone. Welcome to On The Market. Thank you all so much for being here. I'm Dave Meyer. And today, sort of going back to my roots, this is one of my favorite things to study and talk about, real estate markets. We're gonna talk about the regional trends that we're seeing, the opportunities to be had, and the risks you probably want to avoid. You might already know this, but there isn't really such thing as, quote, unquote, the real estate market. On the show, we cover the national market a lot because it's helpful to understand some big macro trends. But what really matters most to your actual portfolios, to the profits that you're actually generating, is what's happening on the ground in your local market. And, of course, we cannot cover every market in The US in today's show alone, but in this episode, we are gonna do a deep dive into housing prices into different regions, different states, different cities across The US, and help interpret what it all means. We'll start with just talking about what has been going on in 2025 and what we know about regional markets as of today in October 2025. Then we're gonna talk about this sort of interesting and fascinating paradox that's going on in the investing climate right now. Next, we'll talk about rent growth and how regional variances there should factor into your investing decisions. Then we'll even talk about forecast because we just got brand new forecast showing where prices are likely to go by Citi across The US into 2026. And lastly, I'll just go over my thesis about markets in general and just remind people what I recommend you do about all the information that we're gonna be sharing in today's episode. Let's do it. We're gonna start with the big picture. You've heard this on the show a lot recently, but everything is slowing down. That's what's happening on a national level. Of course, we've seen regional differences across the years, but the main thing I want everyone to know is even the …
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