Scott Trench’s $1,000,000 Bet on Real Estate (Update)
Episode
34 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Productivity, Relationships, Investing
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Million Dollar Reallocation Results: Trench sold $1,000,000 from S&P 500 in February 2025 to purchase Denver multifamily properties. His quadplex delivered the projected 6.42% cap rate with property management, generating $5,500-6,000 monthly cash flow that funds his lifestyle. However, he missed approximately $100,000 in stock market gains as S&P rose 12% plus dividends during the same period.
- ✓Rental Market Absorption Forecast: Multifamily deliveries dropped significantly in 2025-2026 after historic supply peaks in 2024. Trench predicts vacancy rates will decline 200-300 basis points, driving rent growth to 3-4% in 2026, accelerating in 2027-2028. Immigration policy changes reducing arrivals by several hundred thousand monthly will moderate demand and temper previously forecasted double-digit rent growth for 2027.
- ✓Portfolio Allocation Framework: Trench maintains 45% real estate equity in Denver multifamily and 55% in stocks across retirement accounts, HSAs, and taxable brokerage. He holds a 2.5-year cash reserve due to real estate concentration, lack of W-2 income, and reputational risk as author of Set for Life. New investments flow into low-fee actively managed value funds from Avantis across domestic, international, and emerging markets.
- ✓Negative Leverage Challenge: Buying properties with 6% cap rates using 6.5% fixed-rate debt creates negative leverage, requiring investors to bet entirely on appreciation and rent growth. Current conditions demand exceptional deals, creative financing like assumable mortgages, value-add strategies, or alternative cash flow methods including room rentals and short-term rentals to achieve positive returns without significant equity investment.
- ✓Stock Market Valuation Concerns: S&P 500 trades at 40x CAPE ratio, highest-ever price-to-sales, and elevated price-to-forward-earnings. AI capital expenditure reaching $400-430 billion in 2025 and $600 billion in 2026 gets capitalized rather than expensed, masking true costs in earnings reports. Models become obsolete every three months while services remain free or low-cost, raising questions about sustainable corporate profit translation.
What It Covers
Scott Trench returns one year after selling $1,000,000 in stocks to buy Denver real estate. He reports earning 6.42% cap rates but missing 12% stock market gains, costing roughly $100,000 on paper. The discussion covers 2026 market predictions, portfolio allocation strategies, rental market absorption rates, and navigating negative leverage in current conditions.
Key Questions Answered
- •Million Dollar Reallocation Results: Trench sold $1,000,000 from S&P 500 in February 2025 to purchase Denver multifamily properties. His quadplex delivered the projected 6.42% cap rate with property management, generating $5,500-6,000 monthly cash flow that funds his lifestyle. However, he missed approximately $100,000 in stock market gains as S&P rose 12% plus dividends during the same period.
- •Rental Market Absorption Forecast: Multifamily deliveries dropped significantly in 2025-2026 after historic supply peaks in 2024. Trench predicts vacancy rates will decline 200-300 basis points, driving rent growth to 3-4% in 2026, accelerating in 2027-2028. Immigration policy changes reducing arrivals by several hundred thousand monthly will moderate demand and temper previously forecasted double-digit rent growth for 2027.
- •Portfolio Allocation Framework: Trench maintains 45% real estate equity in Denver multifamily and 55% in stocks across retirement accounts, HSAs, and taxable brokerage. He holds a 2.5-year cash reserve due to real estate concentration, lack of W-2 income, and reputational risk as author of Set for Life. New investments flow into low-fee actively managed value funds from Avantis across domestic, international, and emerging markets.
- •Negative Leverage Challenge: Buying properties with 6% cap rates using 6.5% fixed-rate debt creates negative leverage, requiring investors to bet entirely on appreciation and rent growth. Current conditions demand exceptional deals, creative financing like assumable mortgages, value-add strategies, or alternative cash flow methods including room rentals and short-term rentals to achieve positive returns without significant equity investment.
- •Stock Market Valuation Concerns: S&P 500 trades at 40x CAPE ratio, highest-ever price-to-sales, and elevated price-to-forward-earnings. AI capital expenditure reaching $400-430 billion in 2025 and $600 billion in 2026 gets capitalized rather than expensed, masking true costs in earnings reports. Models become obsolete every three months while services remain free or low-cost, raising questions about sustainable corporate profit translation.
Notable Moment
Trench reveals he expected to find better deals in Denver's small multifamily market by early 2026 but instead finds fewer opportunities than a year ago. Properties neither sell nor decline in price; sellers list then withdraw. Despite predicting either rent growth driving values up or continued price declines creating opportunities, the market remains frozen with minimal transaction activity.
Episode Transcript
Should you invest in real estate or pour your money into the stock market? It's a question you're probably asking yourself right now as you create your financial plans for the year and work on building wealth. So today we're digging into it. Should you put a down payment on that local property or buy more into the S and P five hundred? Hey, everyone. I'm Dave Meyer. Welcome to the BiggerPockets podcast. Today's episode is a follow-up to one of our most popular shows from a year ago. We've got former Bigger Pockets CEO, Scott Trench. A year ago on this show, he proclaimed himself a big bear on the stock market, and he announced he was selling $1,000,000 from his stock portfolio to reposition that capital into real estate in Denver. Now, a year later, S and P is up. It's up 15% from that conversation, and Scott is back. And I'll get an update on his life since stepping away as CEO of BiggerPockets, his recent work hosting the BiggerPockets Money podcast, and then I'll ask him if he has any regrets about that big financial decision he made last year. But more importantly, I'm also gonna get his take on the markets, stock and real estate and more, for the rest of 2026. I wanna find out, is Scott doubling down on real estate and continuing to sell off equities? Or maybe he's changed his outlook and he's back to stockpiling ETFs for the next twelve months. And I'm curious what he recommends for other investors striving towards the same level of financial freedom that he's achieved himself. So let's find out. Scott Trench, welcome back to the Bigger Pockets podcast. It's so good to see you. Thanks for being here. Good to see you as well, Dave. It is it's been a while, and I'm sure the audience is eager to hear. For those of you who don't know, Scott graduated successfully financially free now and stepped away as BiggerPockets CEO a couple months ago. So what tell us what you've been up to. Yeah. I've been doing a lot of a lot of lifting weights, a lot of hiking. I got a ski pass for the first time in since 2017. Dude, that is way too long, actually, living in Colorado. That's Yeah. But this year, the goal is to go 10 times. So I got a ski trip planned, for two week, three weeks from now. And, yeah, just been hanging out, enjoying, enjoying life, and been doing the Bigger Pockets Money podcast and having a blast doing that. It's been really fun. Nice. What what's been going on over at Money? What are you guys focusing on these days? Yeah. We're we're basically the goal is to build a DIY financial planning toolkit. So I think it's very frustrating that you can't even find, like, a basic spreadsheet to put in your financial position if you are somewhat sophisticated investor with some …
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Books, tools, and gear mentioned in this episode
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Books
Set for LifeBy guestby Scott Trench
“He holds a 2.5-year cash reserve due to real estate concentration, lack of W-2 income, and reputational risk as author of Set for Life.”
Tools
by Avantis
“New investments flow into low-fee actively managed value funds from Avantis across domestic, international, and emerging markets.”
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