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Where is ETH in the cycle? | Michael Nadeau

56 min episode · 2 min read
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Episode

56 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Fundraising & VC, Sales & Revenue

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • ETH Cycle Returns Compression: ETH delivered 175x gains in the 2017 cycle, 61x in 2021, and only 5.6x in the most recent cycle, barely exceeding its previous all-time high at $4,953. Investors should assess whether this compression reflects a structural shift or a one-time disruption caused by the L2 roadmap decision.
  • L2 Roadmap Self-Disruption: The EIP-4844 blob upgrade in early 2024 caused ETH L1 fee revenue to collapse significantly, as L2s no longer paid substantial fees to anchor data. Ethereum essentially improved its product for end-users while reducing value accrual to ETH holders — a deliberate tradeoff that suppressed price performance this cycle.
  • Fair Value Zone Identified via MVRV: ETH's MVRV ratio currently sits at 0.84, near the 0.70 cycle bottom recorded in 2022. Only 39.4% of ETH supply is currently in profit, below the 2022 bear market low. These metrics suggest ETH is in a fair value zone, with deep value potentially beginning around $1,500–$1,700.
  • Stablecoin Supply as Balance Sheet Proxy: Ethereum hosts over $180B in stablecoins — roughly 60% of total crypto stablecoin supply — while ETH's market cap sits near $230–250B. Treat stablecoin supply as a hard asset floor similar to book value; when market cap converges toward combined stablecoin and TVL figures, it historically signals undervaluation.
  • Inflation Rate as Token Economic Signal: ETH's annualized issuance rate is currently 0.83%, roughly equal to Bitcoin's inflation rate, even with depressed fee revenue. Staking yields are now over 90% derived from new issuance rather than fees. This means ETH maintains store-of-value token economics even during low-activity periods — a structural advantage over high-inflation competing L1s.

What It Covers

Michael Nadeau of The DeFi Report analyzes ETH's position in the current bear market cycle, examining on-chain metrics including MVRV at 0.84, stablecoin supply at $180B, and diminishing returns across three cycles — from 175x in 2017 to just 5.6x in the most recent peak.

Key Questions Answered

  • ETH Cycle Returns Compression: ETH delivered 175x gains in the 2017 cycle, 61x in 2021, and only 5.6x in the most recent cycle, barely exceeding its previous all-time high at $4,953. Investors should assess whether this compression reflects a structural shift or a one-time disruption caused by the L2 roadmap decision.
  • L2 Roadmap Self-Disruption: The EIP-4844 blob upgrade in early 2024 caused ETH L1 fee revenue to collapse significantly, as L2s no longer paid substantial fees to anchor data. Ethereum essentially improved its product for end-users while reducing value accrual to ETH holders — a deliberate tradeoff that suppressed price performance this cycle.
  • Fair Value Zone Identified via MVRV: ETH's MVRV ratio currently sits at 0.84, near the 0.70 cycle bottom recorded in 2022. Only 39.4% of ETH supply is currently in profit, below the 2022 bear market low. These metrics suggest ETH is in a fair value zone, with deep value potentially beginning around $1,500–$1,700.
  • Stablecoin Supply as Balance Sheet Proxy: Ethereum hosts over $180B in stablecoins — roughly 60% of total crypto stablecoin supply — while ETH's market cap sits near $230–250B. Treat stablecoin supply as a hard asset floor similar to book value; when market cap converges toward combined stablecoin and TVL figures, it historically signals undervaluation.
  • Inflation Rate as Token Economic Signal: ETH's annualized issuance rate is currently 0.83%, roughly equal to Bitcoin's inflation rate, even with depressed fee revenue. Staking yields are now over 90% derived from new issuance rather than fees. This means ETH maintains store-of-value token economics even during low-activity periods — a structural advantage over high-inflation competing L1s.

Notable Moment

In April 2025, ETH reached its lowest-ever point below the 200-week moving average and its worst ETH/BTC ratio on record — a historically extreme oversold condition that briefly triggered a price recovery before failing to sustain new all-time highs.

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Episode Transcript

Bankless Nation, today, we're gonna check-in on Ether the asset. Where is ETH in the cycle? My favorite cycle investor, Michael Nadeau from the DeFi reports on the podcast today. We do these episodes on the Bankless feed every month. And this one, I asked Mike to prepare a little information for the ETH holders among us. Mike and I have talked a lot about fair market value metrics for Bitcoin, the weekly moving averages, MVRV, all of the metrics. We've looked at many charts about Bitcoin. But ETH has its own cycle that is related to the broader crypto cycle yet also independent of Bitcoin. So what do Mike's numbers say about ETH price in the months to come? I wanna know if he thinks it's bottomed. If not, when is it going to bottom? ETH is one of three assets that Mike has held from the last cycle, so I know he owns some. Is he planning to buy more? If so, when? Now I should qualify. Unlike many guests on Bankless, Mike is not an ETH permable. He is bullish ETH, has been bullish ETH various times, but he's looking at this from a a fairly neutral perspective. That is, what do the on chain fundamentals actually say for this asset? Mike, it's great to have you. I know Bitcoin is your favorite asset. Historically, ETH has been a a second, maybe not a close second, but definitely a second. Is ETH still your second favorite asset in crypto, or does this cycle, does it have to prove itself once again in this cycle? Hey, Ryan. Yeah. Great great to be here, and that's a great, question, I think, to to lead in here. I would say that the way I think of this is I I think of Bitcoin as sort of a thing that we wanna anchor our portfolio in. We've had periods where we were more bullish on ETH, less bullish on ETH. We still own some ETH, currently in our portfolio. And, you know, one of the things that I like about the cyclicality of the crypto markets and just kind of, like, the the sort of four year nature of these markets is that we get a chance to kind of, like, underwrite our thesis for for Bitcoin, for ETH, for other assets, that we may want to invest in. And so I think this, episode today is kind of a opportunity to kind of go back and sort of analyze, like, just high level, like, what has happened with ETH over these last few years, you know, where are we going, and kind of get into some of the kind of, like, where we at in the cycle? Are we bottoming right now? So, So, yeah, excited to get into it. But I would say, ETH to answer the question, ETH has to prove itself, to me. And, like, we we can kinda get into what I what I'm looking for, …

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  • Michael Nadeau of The DeFi Report analyzes ETH's position in the current bear market cycle, examining on-chain metrics including MVRV at 0.84, stablecoin supply at $180B, and diminishing returns across three cycles

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