Where is Crypto Going in 2026? | Ben Cowen
Read time
2 min
Topics
Health & Wellness, Investing, Crypto & Web3
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Bitcoin Cycle Timing: Bitcoin's current cycle lasted 1,062 days from low to peak, matching previous cycles at 1,059 and 1,060 days, suggesting the four-year cycle pattern remains intact with October 2024 marking the top.
- ✓Ethereum Price Target: ETH could reach $5,300 if Bitcoin rallies to $100k and the ETH/BTC ratio hits 0.053, the pre-merge low and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, though this would likely be a fleeting high during a bear market.
- ✓Monetary Policy Threshold: Ethereum performs best when Fed funds rate drops below the two-year yield, currently at 3.75% versus 3.5%, requiring one more rate cut to reach neutral territory before sustained crypto rallies can occur.
- ✓Tesla Pattern Comparison: Ethereum's price action mirrors Tesla's 2024 pattern with April bottoms and 40-56% drawdowns, suggesting potential consolidation through 2026 before breaking to new highs in 2027-2028 rather than immediate recovery.
What It Covers
Ben Cowen analyzes Bitcoin's cycle peak at $109k in October 2024, predicting the crypto cycle has ended based on four-year patterns, with limited altcoin rallies possible through 2026.
Key Questions Answered
- •Bitcoin Cycle Timing: Bitcoin's current cycle lasted 1,062 days from low to peak, matching previous cycles at 1,059 and 1,060 days, suggesting the four-year cycle pattern remains intact with October 2024 marking the top.
- •Ethereum Price Target: ETH could reach $5,300 if Bitcoin rallies to $100k and the ETH/BTC ratio hits 0.053, the pre-merge low and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, though this would likely be a fleeting high during a bear market.
- •Monetary Policy Threshold: Ethereum performs best when Fed funds rate drops below the two-year yield, currently at 3.75% versus 3.5%, requiring one more rate cut to reach neutral territory before sustained crypto rallies can occur.
- •Tesla Pattern Comparison: Ethereum's price action mirrors Tesla's 2024 pattern with April bottoms and 40-56% drawdowns, suggesting potential consolidation through 2026 before breaking to new highs in 2027-2028 rather than immediate recovery.
Notable Moment
Cowen reveals Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria, with social interest charts showing 2024 resembled the 2019 mid-cycle peak more than the euphoric 2017 or 2021 tops, explaining why retail never returned this cycle.
Episode Transcript
Begless Nation excited to have Ben Cowen back on into the cryptoverse. That's where we're going today. Ben, is the cycle over? I mean, I think for Bitcoin, it is, unfortunately. Yeah. I mean, the cycle lasted about the same length as the last couple of cycles. Right? So, you can actually even look at the ROI of Bitcoin from the low here, this chart, and you can kind of if if October was the top, you know, this cycle lasted ten sixty two days, last cycle was $10.59, cycle before that was ten sixty So, I mean, it it if the four year cycle seems in if it's intact, which it seems like it is, I think Bitcoin more than likely has has topped for the cycle. You said Bitcoin. Does that mean all of crypto? Not just Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is king that just just means everything downstream of Bitcoin as well this cycle is over? I there's I mean, there's always some stuff that puts the new all time highs in in the midterm year. Right? Like, I mean, even last cycle, we saw Luna put in an all time high, in 2022. So it certainly could be that some things go to all time highs. I just, I don't think I don't think there's going to be like, an alt season or anything like that in early twenty twenty six. If there are new all time highs, it would be just for select altcoins, just a few of them. Did you have any in mind? Like, last time Terra LUNA was very hype y. There were some other hype y types of ecosystems that were candidates for this. It doesn't seem clear that there's any candidates even for for that scenario this time around. Then we had Zcash putting in new all time highs just like you That's true. That's true. Like and and that's kind of what is hard because it's what makes people think there's an all season when there's really not is there's always, like, something going to an all time high. And then people are like, alright. Well, I missed this one. Let me buy the next one. And there's ends up not being another one for, like, another year. You know, obviously we've talked a lot about Ethereum. Ethereum is is an interesting one for me because in some ways it's played out how I thought. In other ways, you know, it's been a little bit different. It it obviously did finally go to its regression band, which it felt like, you know, we spent forever and a half waiting for. And that finally happened and it rallied out of that. And, you know, I had been kind of under the impression that what it was going to do was sweep the prior all time high, fall back down about 30%, and then go back up. But it's obviously gone down a little bit more than 30%. Right? I think it's …
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