What are the key takeaways from this Bankless episode?

Key insights include: **Treasury Bill Purchases vs QE:** The Fed's $40B monthly treasury bill buying expands the balance sheet but doesn't suppress long-end yields or reduce corporate borrowing costs, making it ineffective for risk assets unlike true quantitative easing.; **Bitcoin Cost Basis Clusters:** 41% of Bitcoin supply has cost basis above $78K and 28% above $92K, with 5% clustered at $84-85K from dip buying, suggesting these holders face conviction tests as prices potentially drop to $56-65K range.; **Dollar Devaluation Strategy:** US tariffs represent phase one of restructuring global trade, but solving the trade deficit ultimately requires dollar devaluation and abandoning reserve currency dominance to restore domestic manufacturing and middle-class prosperity over coming years.

What did Michael NATO discuss on Bankless?

Mike from DeFi Report explains why the Fed's rate cut and $40B treasury bill purchases signal economic weakness rather than crypto bullishness, maintaining 80% cash position while waiting for genuine QE. Key topics include: **Treasury Bill Purchases vs QE:** The Fed's $40B monthly treasury bill buying expands the balance sheet but doesn't suppress long-end yields or reduce corporate borrowing costs, making it ineffective for risk assets unlike true quantitative easing.; **Bitcoin Cost Basis Clusters:** 41% of Bitcoin supply has cost basis above $78K and 28% above $92K, with 5% clustered at $84-85K from dip buying, suggesting these holders face conviction tests as prices potentially drop to $56-65K range..

Bankless

The DeFi Report Podcast | Was the Fed Rate Cut a False Signal for Crypto?

December 17, 2025·

Michael NATO

Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Fundraising & VC, Crypto & Web3

AI-Generated Summary

Published Dec 29, 2025

Key Takeaways

✓Treasury Bill Purchases vs QE: The Fed's $40B monthly treasury bill buying expands the balance sheet but doesn't suppress long-end yields or reduce corporate borrowing costs, making it ineffective for risk assets unlike true quantitative easing.
✓Bitcoin Cost Basis Clusters: 41% of Bitcoin supply has cost basis above $78K and 28% above $92K, with 5% clustered at $84-85K from dip buying, suggesting these holders face conviction tests as prices potentially drop to $56-65K range.
✓Dollar Devaluation Strategy: US tariffs represent phase one of restructuring global trade, but solving the trade deficit ultimately requires dollar devaluation and abandoning reserve currency dominance to restore domestic manufacturing and middle-class prosperity over coming years.
✓Labor Market Deterioration: Unemployment reaches 4.6% officially but closer to 8% including part-time workers, with youth unemployment over 16% and 16-24 age group over 10%, historically signaling recession when these metrics rise sharply together.

What It Covers

Mike from DeFi Report explains why the Fed's rate cut and $40B treasury bill purchases signal economic weakness rather than crypto bullishness, maintaining 80% cash position while waiting for genuine QE.

Key Questions Answered

•Treasury Bill Purchases vs QE: The Fed's $40B monthly treasury bill buying expands the balance sheet but doesn't suppress long-end yields or reduce corporate borrowing costs, making it ineffective for risk assets unlike true quantitative easing.
•Bitcoin Cost Basis Clusters: 41% of Bitcoin supply has cost basis above $78K and 28% above $92K, with 5% clustered at $84-85K from dip buying, suggesting these holders face conviction tests as prices potentially drop to $56-65K range.
•Dollar Devaluation Strategy: US tariffs represent phase one of restructuring global trade, but solving the trade deficit ultimately requires dollar devaluation and abandoning reserve currency dominance to restore domestic manufacturing and middle-class prosperity over coming years.
•Labor Market Deterioration: Unemployment reaches 4.6% officially but closer to 8% including part-time workers, with youth unemployment over 16% and 16-24 age group over 10%, historically signaling recession when these metrics rise sharply together.

Notable Moment

Mike reveals the Fed's surprise treasury bill purchase program indicates severe banking sector liquidity tightness rather than dovish policy, with unemployment data showing patterns that historically precede every recession in past decades.

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Episode Transcript

You're about to hear the first episode of a new podcast format I'm working on with Michael, NATO from the DeFi report. The idea behind these episodes is to really get inside Michael's head, his portfolio, his positioning. He's a long term crypto investor. He's someone I respect. I think these episodes will help you on your crypto journey. We'll be doing these weekly next year in 2026, just not on the Bankless podcast feed. So if you want access to these episodes, we're coming out with them every Wednesday next year in 2026. Subscribe to the DeFi report podcast. There'll be a link in the show notes. Go do that now. Welcome to the DeFi report. Was the Fed rate cut the signal to buy back into crypto? That's what we're going to explore on today's episode. So last week, the Fed cut rates by 20.25%. They also injected $40,000,000,000 in Fed treasury bill purchases. Some people are calling this QE lite. I gotta know if that was the signal to buy back in. And if not, what signals does Mike from the d five report need in order to switch back to risk on and buy back some of his Bitcoin? I'm gonna introduce this episode for you. We are doing these episodes on a weekly basis. They're gonna be twenty to thirty minutes or so. Access is on The DeFi Report, YouTube, Spotify, wherever you consume podcasts. What I want you to do right now is go subscribe to those feeds so you get this, in your podcast listener every week. The first episode is now. We will be resuming these episodes again after the holidays in January. And, really, what we're going to do is we're going to put the reports that Mike publishes every Wednesday. We're gonna put it in podcast format so you can consume it right here. You can access those reports at the defireport.io. So expect these weekly on a go forward basis. And the goal for these episodes is education. I am doing these episodes. We are forking this podcast from Bankless because, honestly, I wanna get inside Mike's head. He is a long term crypto investor. He focuses on on chain fundamental metrics, cyclamentals, and we get to see on an ongoing basis his investor journal, basically, and what he's doing in his journey of a long term crypto oriented investor. So it's the assets with the strongest fundamentals, the things to buy during cycle dips or the things he's buying, the things on his watch list. This is almost as if, Buffett invested in crypto. That's what I think Mike's style is. And, of course, none of this is financial advice, entertainment use only. But what you do see is skin in the game because Mike shows us his portfolio in these episodes. That was a long way to introduce you to the DeFi report podcast. Mike, are you ready to do this? I'm ready. Thanks for having me, …

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